Mexican Peso’s Best Forecaster Predicts Pain Coming Before Gains
- PrivateBank sees peso falling more than 4% by end of September
- Todd Liska says carry trade will help propel peso recovery
Silver coins are melted in order to be re-used again at the Mexican Mint, or Casa de Moneda, in San Luis Potosi, Mexico.
Photographer: Susana Gonzalez/BloombergThis article is for subscribers only.
Todd Liska’s optimism made him the best peso forecaster in the second quarter. But now he expects a bit of pain before Mexico’s currency regains strength next year.
Liska, a strategist in Chicago at The PrivateBank, was an outlier in January when he predicted a recovery for the peso after threats to rip up trade agreements from Donald Trump’s administration sent it to a record low. As Wall Street banks from Citigroup Inc. to Nomura Holdings Inc. cut their estimates, Liska maintained that they were excessively bearish and predicted that Mexico’s economic fundamentals would support gains.