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00:00ANNOUNCER: FROM THE WORLD OF POLITICS -- > > PE SPEAKIN TO THE PEOPLE SERVING THE GREAT STATE OF CALIFORNIA AND DEFENDING OUR CONSTITUTION, AND WITH GREAT CONFIDENCE IN OUR CAUCUS, I WILL NOT SEEK REELECTION TO DEMOCRATIC LEADERSHIP IN THE NEXT CONGRESS. ANNOUNCER: TO THE WORLD OF BUSINESS -- > > WE WILL LOVE TO WORK WITH OUR AMERICAN FRIENDS. BRITAIN REMAINS A FANTASTIC PLACE FOR AMERICAN COMING USED TO INVEST. THE BETTER WE CAN DO THE BETTER FOR EVERYONE. ANNOUNCER: THIS IS BALANCE OF POWER WITH DAVID WESTIN. DAVID: FROM BLOOMBERG WORLD HEADQUARTERS IN YOUR TOWER TELEVISION AND RADIO AUDIENCES, WELCOME TO BALANCE OF POWER. WE STARTED WASHINGTON WHERE YESTERDAY WE HAD THE STATEMENT WE HEARD FROM NANCY PELOSI, THE SPEAKER, SAYING SHE WOULD NOT STAND FOR REELECTION. WHICH LEADS TO THE QUESTION, WHAT HAPPENS NEXT? PARTICULARLY WHAT THIS NEW CONGRESS WILL UNDERTAKE TO DO. WHEN ISSUE IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN FOR YOU A SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE AND TO ANSWER THE QUESTIONS RETURN TO EMILY WILKINS OF BLOOMBERG GOVERNMENT. THANK YOU FOR JOINING US FROM THE CAPITOL. WHAT WE KNOW OR THINK WE KNOW ABOUT CONTINUED SUPPORT FROM THE UNITED STATES FOR UKRAINE. > > WE KNOW AT THIS POINT THE WHITE HOUSE HAS ASKED CONGRESS FOR MORE FUNDING, 37.7 BILLION DOLLARS, SIGNIFICANTLY MORE THAN PREVIOUS OR WEST'S FOR THE WHITE HOUSE. A LOT OF THIS WOULD BE GOING TOWARD DEFENDING UKRAINE AGAINST THE RUSSIAN INVASION, MILITARY SUPPORT, BUT THERE IS ALSO HUMANITARIAN AID, IT FOR ENERGY COSTS, FOR HEALTH CARE WRAPPED UP IN THE REQUEST FOR THE WHITE HOUSE. THAT IS SOMETHING CONGRESS WILL BE TAKING A CLOSE LOOK AT AS THEY GET TOWARD THE END OF THE YEAR. THEY HAVE TO FINALIZE GOVERNMENT SPENDING AND THAT PACKAGE OF REQUESTS FOR UKRAINE COULD EASILY BE A PART ABOUT -- OF THE LARGER LEGISLATION THEY'RE LOOKING TO GET THERE. TO REMIND EVERYONE DEMOCRATS ARE STILL CONTROL ABOUT HOUSES OF CONGRESS AND THEREFORE IT IS LIKELY THEY WILL TRY TO ACCOMMODATE SOME OF BIDEN'S REQUEST. YOU ARE SEEING PUSHBACK AMONG REPUBLICANS SAYING THEY WANT MORE ACCOUNTABILITY MEASURES FOR UKRAINE GOING FORWARD BUT AT THE SAME POINT YOU HAVE SEEN BIPARTISAN SUPPORT FOR CONTINUING TO FUND THE U.S. EFFORTS TO HELP UKRAINE. DAVID: WE DID HEAR FROM KEVIN MCCARTHY WHO IS NOW NOMINATED AT LEAST TO BE THE SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE WHEN THE NEW CONGRESS TAKES OFFICE SAYING WE SHOULD NOT HAVE A BLANK CHECK AND THEN HE WALKED IT BACK. WE HAVE A SENSE OF WHETHER WE HAVE SPENDING LESS MONEY OR BEING CAREFUL ON WHAT WE'RE SPENDING IT ON? > > I THINK IT'S A LITTLE BOTH. THERE IS CERTAINLY HESITATION TO SPENDING TONS AND TONS OF MONEY. REPUBLICANS POINTED OUT THERE ARE OTHER MEANT -- OTHER PRIORITIES THE GOVERNMENT NEEDS TO FIND. REPUBLICANS SAYING IT ISA GO TO THE U.S. OTHER BORDER. IF YOU LOOK AT THE WHITE A REPUBLICAN LAWMAKERS, THE WIDER REPUBLICAN CONFERENCE, MANY ARE SUPPORTIVE IN CONTINUING THE AGE UKRAINE SO I THINK THE EXPECTATION IS WE WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF THAT AID BUT IT MIGHT COME WITH A FEW OVERSIGHT AND ACCOUNTABILITY MEASURES ATTACHED. DAVID: THANK YOU FOR JOINING US, THAT IS EMILY WILKINS A BLOOMBERG GOVERNMENT. NOW WE TURN TO SOMEONE WHO HAS EXPERIENCE IN THE ADMINISTRATION AND CAPITOL HILL WHEN IT COMES TO NATIONAL SECURITY ISSUES, WILLIAM COWAN, CHAIRMAN AND CEO OF THE COWEN GROUP. HE SERVED UNDER BILL CLINTON HAVING EARLIER SERVED IN CONGRESS AS A REPRESENTATIVE AND SENATOR. THANK YOU FOR BEING HERE. YOU SERVED IN THE CONGRESS AS A REPUBLICAN IN THE CONGRESS. WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF THIS TALK FROM SOME CONGRESSIONAL REPUBLICANS THAT WE SHOULD BE MORE CAREFUL WITH THE PURSESTRINGS WHEN IT COMES TO UKRAINE? > > I THINK WE CAN BE MORE CAREFUL WITH THE PURSESTRINGS BUT WE HAVE TO BE MORE CAREFUL WITH THE RHETORIC. WHEN THOSE IN POSITIONS OF POWER USE WORDS THEY HAVE TO UNDERSTAND THAT HAS CONSEQUENCES, THAT CAN BE DANGEROUS FOR ALLIES. THE NOTION WE ARE PUTTING OUT IS WE WILL BE HOLDING UKRAINE MORE ACCOUNTABLE, HAVE MORE AUDITS. THAT SENDS A SIGNAL NOT ONLY TO UKRAINIANS BUT ALSO TO THE RUSSIANS THAT WE ARE EXPRESSING LESS SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE RATHER THAN MORE. I THINK THAT FROM SOME MEMBERS OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTY PRO-PUTIN SIDE OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTY AND ALSO SIGNALS FROM THE DEFENSE DEPARTMENT, CHAIRMAN MILLIE MADE A STATEMENT, PUBLIC STATEMENT, WHICH I THOUGHT SHOULD BE DESERVED OR RESERVED FOR PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES THAT PERHAPS PRESIDENT ZELENSKYY SHOULD THINK ABOUT HOW THIS MIGHT BE RESOLVED OVER TIME. I THINK THAT IS A RECOMMENDATION THAT GOES TO PRESIDENT BIDEN AND NOT ZELENSKYY. I THINK THOSE KINDS OF STATEMENTS ARE VERY COUNTERPRODUCTIVE AT THIS POINT. YOU DON'T WANT TO DO ANYTHING OR SAY ANYTHING AGAINST PRESIDENT PUTIN, ANY SIGN THAT WE ARE LESS THAN FULLY COMMITTED TO THE FREEDOM OF UKRAINE AND FREEDOM OF BASICALLY OF DEMOCRACY. DAVID: LET ME TAKE IT FROM THE OTHER SIDE, IS IT POSSIBLE WE SHOULD BE DOING MORE TO SUPPORT UKRAINIANS, PARTICULARLY WITH MILITARY AID? IF SO, WHAT WOULD THAT BE? SEC. COHEN: WE GAVE THEM MORE DEFENSE CAPABILITY IN TERMS OF SHOOTING DOWN MISSILES. IT IS A VERY DIFFICULT CORRELATION HERE. USUALLY YOU CAN TAKE THE OFFENSE, OVERWHELM ANY DEFENSIVE SYSTEM. THAT IS WHAT THE RUSSIANS ARE DOING NOW, FIRING 100 MISSILES A DAY. THAT MEANS YOU HAVE GOT TO HIT THEM DOWN, KNOCK THEM DOWN 100% OF THE TIME OR SOME WILL GET THROUGH. WHAT THE RUSSIANS ARE DOING REALLY BRUTAL, BARBARIC AND THE SENSE OF TRYING TO FREEZE UKRAINIANS INTO SURRENDERING SO NO ELECTRICITY, HEAT, LIGHT, NO ABILITY TO FUNCTION BASICALLY AND A COLD WINTER COMING UP, SO WHAT THEY'RE DOING IS PRETTY BRUTAL AND I THINK IT IS A WAR CRIME AND I THINK ULTIMATELY PRESIDENT PUTIN IS GOING TO BE CHARGED WITH THAT AT SOME POINT THE FUTURE. ONE OTHER POINT I WOULD MAKE OUT , IF PRESIDENT PUTIN DECIDED NOT TO GO TO THE G20 MEETING, YOU ASK WHY IS THAT SO? GIVEN ALL THIS GOING ON IN THE WORLD, WHY WOULD HE NOT GO TO G20 WHERE HE WOULD BE POLICE WELCOME PRESUMABLY ECHO HE IS WORRIED ABOUT BACK HOME. I THINK HE IS AFRAID TO LEAVE MOSCOW FOR FEAR THERE WOULD BE AN ATTEMPT TO TAKE POWER FROM WITHIN. OTHERWISE I CAN'T IMAGINE WHY HE WOULD NOT TAKE ADVANTAGE OF GOING TO ME WITH PRESIDENT XI AND OTHER LEADERS OF THE G20. HE CAN FLY BACK AND FORTH IN VOLUME GO BACK HOME. I THINK HE WAS WORRIED ABOUT WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IN HIS ABSENCE. DAVID: THERE WAS SOME CONCERN THE G20 WOULD NOT EVEN BE ABLE TO GET A JOINT COMMUNIQUE OUT. THEY DID AND IT ADDRESSED UKRAINE, MAYBE NOT AS STRONGLY AS THE UNITED STATES BUT I THINK MORE STRONGLY THAN A LOT OF PEOPLE THOUGHT. WHAT DID YOU TAKE AWAY FROM WHAT THE G20 SAID? > > HI TAKEAWAY -- SEC. COHEN: I TAKEAWAY THE G20 UNDERSTANDS PUT MAKE A MISTAKE BUT TOOK INAPPROPRIATE ACTION THAT VIOLATES AGREEMENTS THAT HAS EXISTED SINCE THE BEGINNING THE SECOND WORLD WAR. I'VE BEEN MEETING WITH LEADERS FROM THE EUROPEAN CONTINENT AND WE HAD EVERYTHING ALL WEEKEND THIS PAST 2.5 DAYS TALKING ABOUT EXACTLY FOR UKRAINE AND HOW DO SUPPORT UKRAINE AND WHAT THIS MEANS IN TERMS OF CHINA. I WANT TO COMMEND PRESIDENT BIDEN FOR MEETING WITH PRESIDENT XI, REALLY IMPORTANT STEPS TAKEN TO TRY TO DE-ESCALATE CERTAINLY THE RHETORIC BUT ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR MISCALCULATION OR ERROR THAT COULD LEAD US TO A MILITARY CONFLICT. I THINK TWO IMPORTANT THINGS TOOK PLACE, REAFFIRMATION OF SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE AND ALSO THE NEED FOR PRESIDENT BIDEN TO MAKE -- MEET WITH SHEET TO SET A COURSE FOR SOME LEVEL OF COOPERATION GOING FORWARD INTO THE FUTURE, VERY IMPORTANT. DAVID: IT WAS GENERALLY UNDERSTOOD THAT THAT MEETING PUT A FLOOR UNDER THE DETERIORATION BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND FOR CHINA BUT SAID THEY WOULD WORK AT THE STAFF LEVEL. ALREADY WE HAD THE TRADE REPRESENTATIVE MEET WITH HER COUNTERPART OVER THERE BUT WHEN IT COMES TO MILITARY MATTERS, WHAT COORDINATION SHOULD WE BE PROVIDING WITH THE CHINESE TO MAKE SURE WE DO NOT MAKE A MISTAKE? > > WE NEED TO STAY IN CONTACT WITH THEM IN TERMS OF HEADING TO BE ABLE TO TALK DIRECTLY BETWEEN OUR SECRETARY DEFENSE AND THEIR COUNTERPART. THE PRESIDENT NEEDS TO BE IN TOUCH WITH PRESIDENT XI AND CRITICAL MOMENTS BUT COMMUNICATION ENGAGEMENT IS CRITICAL BETWEEN TWO BIG POWERS WITH NUCLEAR WEAPONS. NOT ALLOWING THE RHETORIC OR POTENTIAL TO SPILL -- SPIN OUT OF CONTROL. I THINK THE G20 I THINK WERE HAPPY TO SEE THAT EVER TO BE MADE. I THINK CHINA NEEDS US AS WELL AS WE NEED TO MAKE SURE THEY DO NOT TAKE MEASURES DEALING WITH TAIWAN THAT USES ANY MILITARY FORCE WHICH WILL LEAD TO A CONFLICT BUT CHINA, THERE ECONOMY IS NOT DOING WELL. THEY NEED TO CONTINUE TO HAVE WESTERN ENGAGEMENT AND INVESTMENT IN ORDER TO IMPROVE THEIR ECONOMIC SITUATION SO I THINK IT BENEFITS THEM, WILL BENEFIT US BY REDUCING THE POSSIBILITY FOR COMING INTO CONFLICT WITH THE CHINESE AND BASICALLY ALL OF OUR ALLIES IN THE REGION, OTHER COUNTRIES, ALL OF OUR ASIAN COUNTRIES AND THOSE IN THE ASIAN-PACIFIC AND ENDO PACIFIC, THEY WANT TO MAKE SURE WE DO NOT SOMEHOW STEP INTO A CONFLICT WITH THE CHINESE EITHER BY MISCALCULATION OR MISTAKE. I THINK JOE BIDEN DESERVES CREDIT WITH PRESIDENT XI SAYING WE HAVE DIFFERENCES, WE CAN GO OVER RAGE, WE CAN COMPETE, AND WE CAN CONFRONT EACH OTHER. WE HAVE THOSE CHOICES TO MAKE SO LET'S MAKE ONE FOR COOPERATION, COLLABORATION WHEN POSSIBLE, AND CONFRONTATION IF NECESSARY BUT AVOID CONFRONTATION AT ALL POSSIBLE. DAVID: YOU MENTION TAIWAN, THE SOURCE OF INCREASING TENSION BETWEEN CHINA AND THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE SUMMER AND PART WAS FRANKLY BECAUSE I THINK SPEAKER PELOSI'S VISIT TO TAIWAN. AT THIS POINT, IT LOOKS LIKE PRESIDENT XI AND BIDEN AT LEAST IN PART TRIED TO TAKE AWAY SOME TENSION. FROM YOUR POINT OF VIEW, WALK IN THE UNITED STATES DO TO MAKE SURE THAT DOES NOT GET OUT OF CONTROL? SEC. COHEN: I THINK WE CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DEFENSIVE CAPABILITY TO THE TAIWANESE. AT THE SAME TIME NOT BY WORD OR DEED SEND THE SIGNAL THAT WE ARE ENCOURAGING THEM TO BE ABLE TO CONFRONT OR ENGAGE IN CONFLICT WITH CHINA ITSELF. I THINK WHEN WE SAY WE ARE GOING TO PROVIDE WEAPONS THAT MIGHT BE SEEN AS OFFENSIVE IN AN OFFENSE OF CAPABILITY TO THE CHINESE, THAT IS CROSSING A REDLINE AS FAR AS THE CHINESE ARE CONCERNED. AT THEY SAY WE ARE PREPARED IN OUR PLANNING TO TAKE MILITARY ACTION, THAT IS A REDLINE FOR US SO WHAT WE GOTTA DO IS UNDERSTAND WHERE THE RED LINES ARE, MAKING SURE WE DO NOT COME CLOSE TO THOSE LINES THAT SOMEHOW EITHER ONE SIDE OR THE OTHER MAKES A MISTAKE AND SUDDENLY THERE IS A CONFLICT. THAT IS THE WAR SITUATION WE COULD SEE BECAUSE THEN YOU HAVE NOT ONLY TAIWAN INVOLVED BUT YOU HAVE COUNTRIES WHERE ALLIES OF OURS POTENTIALLY GETTING INVOLVED AND OUR ASIAN FRIENDS DO NOT WANT TO SEE A CONFLICT IN ANY WAY BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND CHINA OVER TAIWAN BECAUSE THEY ARE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD, THERE WILL BE CONSEQUENCES FOR THEM AND THEY SAY OK WE WANT TO MAKE SURE CHINA DOES NOT TAKE AGGRESSIVE ACTION UNDER THESE CIRCUMSTANCES BUT AT THE SAME TIME THEY DO NOT WANT TO SEE THE UNITED STATES POKE A FINGER IN THE EYE OF THE CHINESE -- I'VE THE DRAGON SO TO SPEAK AND PUSH IT TO A CONFLICT TYPE OF SITUATION, CONFRONTATION AT THE LEASE. I THINK BOTH SIDES HAVE AN INTEREST IN REDUCING THE RHETORIC AND REDUCING EXERCISES THAT APPEAR TO BE DESIGNED TO PROVOKE EACH OTHER. PRESIDENT XI CAN TAKE THOSE ACTIONS, HE CAN SAY WE WILL TRY TO FIND A WAY TO WORK UNITED STATES, THEY CAN DO SOMETHING ABOUT SENDING CYCLES TO THE NORTH KOREANS. WE HAVE NOT TALKED ABOUT THEM BUT THEY ARE ENGAGING IN DANGEROUS BEHAVIOR BY FIRING MISSILES THAT FLY OVER JAPAN. IF ANYTHING SHOULD GO WRONG THERE, WE HAVE ANOTHER SITUATION WHERE THEY COULD SPILL INTO WARFARE. SO THE CHINESE CAN EXERCISE SOME INFLUENCE OVER THE NORTH KOREANS, THE CHINESE CAN CERTAINLY LOWER THE RHETORIC IN TERMS OF TAIWAN, AND WE CAN RESPECT THE FACT WE HAVE A ONE CHINA POLICY AND THAT POLICY ALSO INCLUDES TAIWAN RELATIONS ACT WHICH SAYS WE WILL PROVIDE DEFENSIVE CAPABILITY TO THE TAIWANESE. WHAT WE ENCOURAGE THE CHINESE TO DO BECAUSE THERE WILL BE A REUNION, THAT IT IS DONE THROUGH PEACEFUL MEANS. ECONOMIC, DIPLOMATIC, PEACEFUL MEANS AND NOT THROUGH THE EXERCISE OF MILITARY POWER. DAVID: THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR YOUR TIME. THAT IS WILLIAM COWAN, CHAIRMAN AND CEO OF THE COWEN GROUP. COMING UP WE TALK WITH ROBIN KELLY ABOUT WHAT COMES NEXT FOR THE DEMOCRATIC CONGRESSIONAL CAUCUS WITHOUT SPEAKER PELOSI AT THE HELM. THIS IS BALANCE OF POWER AND BLOOMBERG TELEVISION AND ON RADIO. DAVID: THIS IS "BALANCE OF POWER" ON BLOOMBERG TELEVISION AND RADIO. I'M DAVID WESTIN. ABOUT 24 HOURS AGO NOW SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE NANCY PELOSI TOOK TO THE FLOOR TO ANNOUNCE SHE WOULD NOT STAND FOR REELECTION TO LEADERSHIP BUT IN DOING SO SHE COMMENDED THE FUTURE LEADERSHIP WITHOUT SPECIFYING WHO IT WOULD BE. THIS IS PART OF WHAT SHE SAID. > > FOR ME THE HOURS COME FOR A NEW GENERATION TIVOLI THE NEVER CRADDICK KOSICE -- DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS THAT I RESPECT. I'M GRATEFUL SOME MONEY ARE READY AND WILLING TO SHOULDER THIS AWESOME RESPONSIBILITY. DAVID: WE TURN TO ONE OF THOSE SHOULDERING THE RESPONSIBILITY IS PART OF THE DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS HAS ROBIN KELLY, DEMOCRATIC CONGRESSWOMAN FROM ILLINOIS. THANK YOU FOR BEING HERE. I GUESS THE MOST IMPORTANT QUESTION IS, WHAT ARE YOU LOOKING FOR IN THE NEXT GENERATION THE NANCY PELOSI IS TALKING ABOUT? > > I THINK SOMEONE TENACIOUS, INCLUSIVE, APPROACHABLE, WHO HAS OUR DEMOCRATIC VALUES BUT ALSO I THINK WE HAVE THAT PERSON ALREADY. DAVID: AND WITH THAT BY ANY CHANCE BE HAKEEM JEFFRIES. > > IT WOULD BE. DAVID: TELL US WHAT HE WILL GIVE YOU THAT YOU NEED. REP. KELLY: WELL HE IS DOING IT AS THE CHAIR OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY. HAKEEM IS SUPPORTIVE OF MEMBERS, INCLUSIVE , HAS FLOWN ALL OVER THE PLACE TO HELP MEMBERS AT A MOMENTS NOTICE. HE HAS ALREADY SACRIFICED SO MUCH OF HIS TIME. HE IS SMART, CARING, COMPASSIONATE. I THINK HE IS THE RIGHT PERSON FOR THIS TIME. DAVID: I'VE SEEN THE LETTER. HE ALSO RAISED A FAIRMONT OF MONEY FOR CANDIDATES AS I SEE IT. REP. KELLY: HE HAS RAISED A FAIRMONT TO MONEY FOR CANDIDATES, HE HELPED ME WHEN I WAS THE CHAIR OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY OF ILLINOIS. HE HELPED SO MANY PEOPLE AND HE ALWAYS TAKES THE TIME. AS I SAID, HE IS VERY APPROACHABLE, HE'S PAID -- HE PAYS CLOSE ATTENTION TO DETAIL, HE IS THE ONE FOR ME. DAVID: NOBODY DOES IT ALL THEMSELVES AS POWERFUL AS NANCY PELOSI. SHE’'S HAD JIM CLYBURN AND WHAT ABOUT THE OTHER TWO MEMBERS AT THE TOP THERE. I KNOW WE'RE TALKING ABOUT KATHERINE CLARK AND PETE AT OUR. REP. KELLY: THEY WILL HAVE MY SUPPORT. I ALWAYS TEASE CATHERINE BECAUSE I CAME IN SPECIAL ELECTION AND SHE WAS AFTER ME SO SHE GAVE ME MY DEMOCRATIC SINEW ALREADY, BOTH AGAIN APPROACHABLE, CARING, WELL RESPECTED BY COLLEAGUES WHICH I THINK IS REALLY IMPORTANT. ESPECIALLY WHEN THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE. DAVID: IF THAT IS THE LEADERSHIP OF THE DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS GOING FORWARD IN MINORITY NOW, NOT MAJORITY, IT STRIKES ME THERE IS ONE BIG DIFFERENCE, THEY ARE YOUNGER. BUT THERE ARE ALSO A COUPLE DIFFERENCES, THEY ARE MORE DIVERSE. YOU WILL HAVE I BELIEVE THE FIRST BLACK PERSON TO BE THE HEAD OF ONE OF THE MAJOR CAUCUSES IN THE CONGRESS AND ALSO IF I SAY SO, SOMEWHAT MORE MODERATE. REP. KELLY: I THINK IT DEPENDS ON WHAT THE TOPIC IS. WE ARE NOT, AS YOU KNOW, DEMOCRATS ARE DEFINITELY NOT MONOLITHIC BUT I THINK ON MAIN ISSUES THERE IS A LOT OF AGREEMENT. IT IS ALSO OK THAT THERE IS NOT AGREEMENT. THAT IS WHAT MAKES DEMOCRACY ALSO THAT WE CAN AGREE TO DISAGREE AND WE WILL MOVE ON AND LOOK AT THE BIGGER PICTURE. I THINK THOSE THREE CAN DO THAT AND LEAD US IN THAT WAY. DAVID: WHAT ABOUT THE DIVERSITY ISSUE? THAT IS SOMETHING NANCY PELOSI ADDRESSED THAT SHE TOOK PRIDE IN THE FACT CAUCUS IS MORE DIVERSE, THOUGH SHE SAID YOU HAVE A WAYS TO GO. REP. KELLY: DEFINITELY. WE ARE ALL PROUD THAT WE LOOK LIKE AMERICA AND TO THAT CAN BE MORE WOMEN, -- MORE WOMEN LIKE, PEOPLE OF COLOR, MORE LGBTQ, MORE PEOPLE FROM OTHER RELIGIONS AND THOSE KINDS OF THINGS. IT CAN ALWAYS BE MORE BUT I THINK WE ARE MORE AND MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF WHAT THIS COUNTRY LOOKS LIKE. DAVID: ONE OF THE PIECES OF HISTORY YESTERDAY WAS NANCY PELOSI SAYING SHE IS NOT LEAVING THE CONGRESS, SHE WILL CONTINUE TO REPRESENT HER DISTRICT IN SAN FRANCISCO, I THINK THE FIRST TIME SINCE 1955 THAT HAS BEEN TRUE FOR THE SPEAKER HAS CONTINUED IN THE HOUSE. YOU HAVE A SENSE OF WHAT HER ROLE WILL BE? I THINK SHE DOES NOT WANT TO BE THE MOTHER-IN-LAW OF THE KITCHEN SAY MY SON DOES NOT LIKE THE STUFFING MADE THAT WAY. REP. KELLY: YEAH, WELL SHE IS LIKE EMERITUS AND SOMEONE THAT HAKEEM OR CATHERINE OR PETE CAN GO THROUGH FOR ADVICE. SHE IS A VERY SMART, SHREWD LEADER SO SHE WILL BE SOMEONE THAT ALL OF THEM -- ALL OF US CAN GO TO QUITE FRANKLY AND I'M SURE SHE WILL NOT STOP RAISING MONEY. SHE WAS FANTASTIC, TREMENDOUS RAISING MONEY FOR THE CAUCUS AND I'M SURE SHE STILL WANTS TO BE HELPFUL BECAUSE SHE WANTS US TO BE SUCCESSFUL. DAVID: WE TALKED ABOUT WHO WILL BE LEADING, IN WHAT DIRECTION WILL IT BE LEADING? NOW YOU ARE IN THE MINORITY. THERE ARE COUPLE ARCHER NATIVES. ONE IS TO BE THE PARTY OF NO, BLOCKING ANYTHING FROM THE REPUBLICANS, ANOTHER WOULD BE TO FIND SOME THINGS TO DO ANY BIPARTISAN WAY. ARE THERE THINGS YOU CAN DO? REP. KELLY: I THINK KNOWING WHO THE LEADERSHIP IS WE ARE TRYING TO MOVE THE COUNTRY FORWARD ERIE AND WE DO NOT WANT TO SAY NO AS HAPPENED TO US JUST TO SAY NO. WE WANT TO MOVE THE COUNTRY FORWARD. AND THAT WILL LEAD US TO 2024. DAVID: THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR YOUR TIME THAT IS ROBIN KELLY, DEMOCRATIC CONGRESSMAN FROM -- CONGRESSWOMAN FROM ILLINOIS. STILL TO COME, THE AFTERMATH OF THE G20 AND THE CONTINUED WAR IN UKRAINE. THIS IS "BALANCE OF POWER" ON BLOOMBERG TELEVISION AND RADIO. DAVID: THIS IS "BALANCE OF POWER" ON BLOOMBERG TELEVISION AND RADIO. I'M DAVID WESTIN. IT IS TIME TO CHECK ON THE MARKET THAT WHAT THEY'RE DOING AND WHY THEY ARE DOING IT. FOR THAT WE TURN TO KRITI GUPTA UP. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE IS A LOT OF MOVEMENT IN EQUITIES BUT THERE IS MORE THAN IT LOOKS. KRITI: THERE IS BECAUSE WE STARTED THE OPEN UP OVER 1% AND YOU SAW FUTURES WAS REALLY BIG ACCELERATION, ALMOST FELT LIKE YOU ARE BUYING INTO A WEEKEND WHICH IS RARE. FRIDAYS ARE ALWAYS THIS RISK OFF DAY THAT YOU CASH OUT FOR YOU START YOUR TWO DAYS OFF I THINK WHAT IS GOING ON IS A LOT IN THE CROSS ASSET SPACE. TAKE A LOOK AT OIL, BRENT CRUDE TRADING WITH AN 87 HANDLE, NINE MONTHS CRUDE WITH A 79 HANDLE. IT KINDA FEELS LIKE THEY ARE STARTING TO PRICE THIS CONCEPT OF HER SESSION. A BIG PART OF THE NARRATIVE IS WHEN WE SEE THE TIPPING POINT OF INFLATION BEING THE DRIVER VERSUS GROWTH CONCERNS BEING THE DRIVER? IF YOU ARE A BELIEVER INFLATION IS DRIVING THE STORY, THE COMMODITY COMPLEX AS A WHOLE WILL BE HIGHER. IF YOU THINK GROWTH WILL BE MORE OF THE CONCERN, I.E. RECESSION, IN 2023, WHICH THE ODDS ARE STARTING TO PRICE IN MORE AND MORE, THAT IS WHEN YOU SEE THE SELLOFF IN THE COMMODITY SPACE SO IT IS NOT JUST BRENT CRUDE. THAT SENTIMENT WILL FEED INTO THE EQUITY MARKETS AS WELL WHICH IS PROBABLY WHY YOU SEE DOWN .3% WITH THE INTRADAY MOVE IS DOWN 1%. DAVID: AS I UNDERSTAND IT, IT'S AN IMPORTANT DEVELOPMENT WITH THE RELATIONSHIP WITH THE CURRENT VICE EMPEROR -- CURRENT PRICE AND FUTURE PRICE. . KRITI: IT IS. IT'S THIS IDEA THAT YOU WHAT YOUR OIL CONTRACTS LEGO MONTH BY MONTH COMING YOU WANT THE NEAREST ON TRACK TO BE THE HIGHEST PRICE BECAUSE THAT SIGNALS IT'S THE HIGHEST PRICE BECAUSE THE MOST DEMAND FOR HERE NOW. IF YOU SEE THAT FLIPPER YOU HAVE THE NEAREST CONTRACT TO BE A LOWER PRICE THAN THE FURTHER OUT CONTRACTS, THAT TELLS YOU THE DEMAND IN THE HERE AND NOW IS NOT AS HEALTHY AS IT IS FURTHER OUT ERIE IT IN OTHER WORDS, YOU WILL SEE A SLOW DOWN CLOSER TO NOW THAN IN THE FUTURE. IT IS THAT CONCEPT THAT CREATES ESSENTIALLY THIS IDEA OF AN OVERSUPPLY IN THE NEAR TERM, A.K.A. RECESSION. DAVID: YOU KNOW WHAT I WILL ASK, WHAT DOES THAT MEAN FOR THE FED? YOU COME BACK TO THE FED SOONER LATER. KRITI: I THINK EVERYONE DOES IN THIS MARKET. IT MEANS DO YOU SEE THIS DECELERATION CROSS EVEN THE FOOD PRICES ARE HOUSING MARKET? BECAUSE IT IS NOT JUST AN OIL STORY THE WAY IT WAS SO SIX MONTHS AGO. DAVID: THANK YOU SO MUCH. THAT IS KRITI GUPTA AND YOU CAN CATCH HER AGAIN ANCHORING AT 1:00 P.M. ON BLOOMBERG MARKETS. COMING UP, IAN BREMMER OF THE EURASIA GROUP, WHAT CAME OUT OF THE G20 AND WHAT WILL COME OUT OF COP 27 WHICH IS WINDING DOWN THIS WEEKEND, NOT CLEAR THEY WILL GET EVERYTHING ACCOMPLISHED THEY SET OUT TO DO. THAT IS COMING UP NEXT AND THIS IS BALANCE OF POWER ON BLOOMBERG TELEVISION AND RADIO. DAVID: THIS IS "BALANCE OF POWER" ON BLOOMBERG TELEVISION AND RADIO. I'M DAVID WESTIN. WE WANT TO KEEP YOU UP-TO-DATE WITH NEWS FROM AROUND THE WORLD AND WE TURN TO MARK COME TO AN WITH THE FIRST WORD. MARK: THANK YOU, NEW YORK REPRESENTATIVE HAKEEM JEFFRIES FORMALLY PUT HIMSELF IN THE RUNNING TO BECOME THE HOUSE DEMOCRATIC LEADER AS THE PARTY UNDERGOES AN HISTORIC GENERATIONAL SHIFT. JEFFRIES WOULD BE THE FIRST BLACK ALREADY LEADER IN CONGRESS AND WAS SUCCEED HOUSE SPEAKER NANCY PELOSI WHO IS LEADING LEVERAGE -- LEAVING LEADERSHIP BY STAYING IN CONGRESS. THE MINNEAPOLIS FED PRESIDENT SAID THE WHOLE IDEA OF CRYPTOCURRENCY IS "NONSENSE" AFTER THE IMPLOSION OF FTX GROUP. HE SAID" THIS IS NOT THE CASE OF ONE FRAUDULENT COMPANY AS SERIOUS INDUSTRY. THE ENTIRE NOTION OF CRYPTO IS NONSENSE. -- NONSENSE." HE CONTINUED" NO INFLATION HEDGE, SCARCITY, TAXING AUTHORITY, JUST A TOOL OF SPECULATION AND GREATER FOOLS. OFFICIALS ARE SET TO BAN A SALE OF ALCOHOL WITHIN ITS WORLD CUP STADIUMS. THE MOVE IS A DRAMATIC REVERSAL OF AN EARLIER DECISION TO ALLOW ANHEUSER-BUSCH TO SELL BUDWEISER BEER. BLOOMBERG LEARNED IT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MOVING CONCESSION STANDS SERVING EL CAJON FURTHER AWAY FROM THE STADIUMS. FANS WHO HAVE SHELLED OUT THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS FOR PRIVATE HOSPITALITY SUITES WILL BE UNAFFECTED BY THE BAN. THE TOURNAMENT KICKS OFF SUNDAY WITH THE HOSTS TAKING ON A COULD OR. BRAZIL'S CENTRAL BANK CHIEF SAID IT WILL PERSIST IN EFFORTS TO COMBAT INFLATION AS THE INCOMING GOVERNMENT ADVANCES PLANS TO ADD BILLIONS OF DOLLARS TO PUBLIC SPENDING NEXT YEAR. POLICYMAKERS WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE STEPS TO MEET ITS CONSUMER PRICE MANDATE, THE CHIEF SAID, AT A BLOOMBERG EVENT IN SOUTH PALO. THE ADVENT COMES AFTER HE LED ONE OF THE WORLD'S FIRST AND MOST AGGRESSIVE INTEREST RATE HIKING CYCLES IN THE WAKE OF THE PANDEMIC. GLOBAL NEWS, -- GLOBAL NEWS, 24 HOURS A DAY, ON AIR AND ON "BLOOMBERG QUICKTAKE," POWERED BY MORE THAN 2700 JOURNALISTS AND ANALYSTS IN OVER 120 COUNTRIES. I AM MARK CRUMPTON. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. DAVID: WE HAVE A NEW CONGRESS COMING IN IN THE NEW YEAR AND IT WOULD BE NEARLY DIVIDED WITH REPUBLICANS HAVING A SMALL MAJORITY ON THE HOUSE SIDE AND SENATE REMAINING IN DEMOCRATIC HANDS THOUGH VERY NARROWLY. ONE QUESTION IS WHAT THIS MAY WHAT -- WHAT THIS MIGHT MEAN IF ANYTHING FOR YOU IT FOR A POLICY. RETURN TO IAN BREMMER, FOUNDER OF THE GROUP IN G0 MEDIA. BEFORE WE GET TO THE G20 MEETING, WHAT DO YOU THINK WILL BE THE EFFECT IF ANY ON U.S. FOREIGN POLICY ON WHAT HAPPENED IN THE MIDTERMS? > > NOT MEANINGFUL ON RUSH I LEVEL OF SUPPORT FROM REPUBLICANS AND DEMOCRATS LOOK THE CONTINUALLY STRONG. IT IS ONLY A FEW ON THE FRINGES OF BOTH PARTIES THAT ARE RAISING BIG QUESTIONS THERE. CHINA WILL GET HARDER LINE, WE WILL SEE MORE REPUBLICANS FROM THE HOUSE THAT WILL BE DRIVING TRIPS TO TAIWAN AND TALKING ABOUT THE DESIRE TO HAVE MORE AMERICAN CORPORATIONS LEAVE CHINA OR REDUCE THEIR FOOTPRINT, BRINGING INTO FRIENDLY COUNTRIES. THAT'LL BE ONE OF THE MOST SIGNIFICANT MOVE. THE FACT ALL THE ELECTION DENIERS THAT WERE RUNNING FOR GOVERNORSHIPS AS WELL AS SECRETARY OF STATE POSITIONS IN KEY SWING STATES THAT ALL LOST MEANS THE POTENTIAL, THE TAIL RISK OF A CONSTITUTIONAL CRISIS OF BREAKING THE 20 TO FOUR ELECTION, WHICH ALLIES AROUND THE WORLD WERE INCREASINGLY WORRIED ABOUT, HAS GONE AWAY AND IN THAT REGARD, IT WAS A GOOD DAY FOR U.S. DEMOCRACY AND A GOOD DAY FOR THE WAY THE UNITED STATES IS PERCEIVED INTERNATIONALLY. DAVID: ALSO A GOOD DAY I THINK MOST WOULD AGREE FOR PRESIDENT BIDEN THOUGH HE DID LOSE THE HOUSE BY A NARROW MAJORITY AND DID MUCH BETTER THAN ANYONE EXPECTED IN MUCH BETTER THAN HISTORICAL NORMS WOULD SUGGEST AS HE WENT TO THE G20. LOOKING AT THE G20, HOW DID HE FARE OVER THERE? > > HE FARED WELL. HE HAD A SPRING IN THE STEP BECAUSE THEY DID EXCEED EXPECTATIONS AND THE MIDTERMS AND IT COULD'VE GONE WORSE FOR HIM. A REPUBLICAN LIGHTHOUSE WILL BE DEEPLY PROBLEMATIC IN TERMS OF THE INVESTIGATIONS AGAINST BIDEN AND THE REST AND THAT WILL BE THE SHOW PUT -- BUT IN THE G20 MEETING ITSELF, THE MEETING WAS XI JINPING DID HELP TO STABILIZE THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND CHINA THAT FRIENDLY HAS BEEN DETERIORATING DRAMATICALLY OVER THE COURSE OF THE PAST YEARS AND LET'S BE CLEAR, THE LEADERS OF THE UNITED STATES AND CHINA HAVE NOT MET FACE-TO-FACE FOR TWO YEARS NOW AND THE PANDEMIC IS A BIG PART OF THAT BUT SHE AND BIDEN KNOW EACH OTHER WELL AND GET ALONG REASONABLY WELL SO THAT ABSENCE MADE A DIFFERENCE AND THREE HOURS FACE-TO-FACE, I THINK WILL LEAD TO MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT HIGH-LEVEL ENGAGEMENT ON AREAS THERE CAN BE SOME LEVEL OF COOPERATION LIKE FOR EXAMPLE DEALING WITH EXTENDED INDEBTEDNESS FOR THE FOREST -- POOREST COUNTRIES IN THE WORLD. SO THAT IS A POSITIVE THAT COMES OUT OF THE G20 FOR BIDEN, A SECOND POSITIVE IS THE FACT INCREASINGLY MOST OF THE G20 COUNTRIES ARE GETTING AN ANGRY AT THE EXPANSION OF THE RUSSIAN INVASION INTO UKRAINE AND THAT IS OF COURSE WHAT ALLOWED YOU TO GET A JOINT COMMUNIQUE THE RUSSIANS WERE NOT HAPPY ABOUT WHAT THEY HAD NO CHOICE. DAVID: LET ME A CUP ON THAT SPECIFICALLY. YOU CAN AND I TALKED TO BEFORE ON WE HAVE THE UNITED STATES AND OTHER WESTERN ALLIES BUT THERE IS THE REST OF THE WORLD THAT IS NOT SO MUCH SUPPORTING THE UNITED STATES BUT HERE YOU HAD A JOINT COMMUNIQUE THAT WAS REASONABLY STARCHY IF I COULD PUT IT THAT WAY WITH RESPECT TO RUSSIA AND REPORTING BEHIND THE SCENES WAS THE COUNTRY SUCH AS INDIA AND INDONESIA HELPED. ARE WE SEEING A SHIFT IN THE DYNAMICS? > > YEAH. OF COURSE THE DEVELOPING WORLD STILL SEES A LOT OF WESTERN HYPOCRISY IN SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE AND NOT SUPPORT FOR A WHOLE BUNCH OF OTHER ISSUES THAT THEY SEE AS MAJOR HUMAN RIGHTS CHALLENGES, WHETHER THE PALESTINIANS, YEMEN, SUDAN, YOU NAME IT. SO THAT ISN'T GOING AWAY AND OF COURSE THESE POOR COUNTRIES ARE ALSO NOT GOING TO SUPPORT U.S. SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA. THEY ARE TRYING TO BUY COMMODITIES THAT COME OUT OF RUSSIA AS CHEAPLY AS THEY CAN INCLUDING A STRATEGIC PARTNER LIKE INDIA WHO IS BUYING MORE OIL FROM RUSSIA, EVEN THEN THE CHINESE ARE. I DO NOT WANT TO GO TOO FAR ON THIS BUT I DO WANT TO SAY THE RUSSIANS ARE RECOGNIZED BY PRETTY MUCH EVERYONE AROUND THE WORLD AS HAVING GOTTEN THIS WAR VERY BADLY. WHETHER YOU ARE TALKING TO THE AMERICANS OR INDIANS OR EVEN CHINESE, EVERYONE WANTS THE WAR TO STOP. EVERYONE WANTS AN END OF HOSTILITIES. HOW YOU GET THERE, THERE IS DISAGREEMENT. HOW PUBLIC YOU WILL BE ON PRESSING THE RUSSIANS THERE IS DISAGREEMENT BUT NO ONE LIKES THIS WAR. DAVID: YOU MENTIONED THE MEETING BETWEEN PRESIDENT XI AND PRESIDENT BIDEN AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FURTHER TALKS. WE ALREADY HAVE REPORTEDLY THE USTR MEETING WITH HER COUNTERPART FOR CHINA AROUND THE EDGE OF THE G20, REPORTEDLY SECRETARY OF STATE TONY BLINKEN WILL BE GOING OVER TO VISIT BEIJING. TAKE US THROUGH THOSE TALKS. WHAT DO YOU EXPECT FROM THOSE, WHAT ARE THE IMPORTANT ONES THAT SHOULD HAPPEN? > > ASSUMING JANET YELLEN WILL NOT BE SECRETARY, I THINK A REPLACEMENT WILL BE CRITICAL IN AN ONGOING RELATIONSHIP WITH CHINA AND I SAY THAT BECAUSE THAT IS WHERE YOU GET THE GREATEST CONDITION OF THE IMPORTANCE OF U.S./CHINESE INTERDEPENDENCE, ECONOMIC INTERDEPENDENCE, FINANCIAL INTERDEPENDENCE, TRADE INTERDEPENDENCE, AND YELLEN, WHO I LIKE A LOT PERSONALLY, I RESPECT HER, SHE IS A WONDERFUL PERSON, NOT AT ALL POLITICAL. SHE DOES NOT HAVE SHARP BELLOWS -- ELBOWS AND DOES NOT HAVE ACCESS TO THE WHITE HOUSE. THAT NEEDS TO CHANGE AND WHEN IT DOES I THINK THAT RELATIONSHIP AND ENGAGEMENT WITH ECONOMIC LEADERS IN CHINA WILL BE ABSOLUTELY CRITICAL. BEYOND THAT, I WOULD SAY IT WILL BE THE NATIONAL SECURITY ISSUES, PARTICULARLY ON TECHNOLOGY BECAUSE AS MUCH AS EVERYONE WAS HAPPY TO SEE BIDEN AND XI JINPING METER FOR THREE HOURS AND NOT THROW EACH OTHER OUT OF THE ROOM, THE FACT WAS U.S. POLICY ON TECHNOLOGY IS A POLICY OF CHINESE CONTAINMENT AND HERE I'M SPECIFICALLY TALKING ABOUT SEMICONDUCTORS AND THE EXPORT CONTROLS AROUND THAT AND THAT'S GOING TO BE A CHALLENGING POLICY TO IMPLEMENT, TO GET ALLIES ON BOARD, AND LEAD TO A LOT OF TENSION WITH THE CHINESE, INCLUDING OVER TSMC, TAIWANESE SEMICONDUCTOR COMPANY, WHICH HAS BE --BECOME THE MOST STRATEGIC COMPANY IN THE ENTIRE WORLD. DAVID: I WONDER PERHAPS WHETHER THE MARKETS ARE UNDERESTIMATING THE EXTENT TO WHICH THE EXPORT CONTROLS IMPOSED WITH HER SPEC TO SEMICONDUCTORS AND MANUFACTURING, WE UNDERESTIMATE HOW THREATENING THAT IS TO THE CHINESE. I UNDERSTAND THERE IS TALK OF GOING FURTHER WITH CONTROLS ON THINGS LIKE BIOTECH. > > YEAH. I THINK IN AREAS CONSIDERED TO BE DUAL USE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY AND FOR THE CHINESE MILITARY, YOU ARE GOING TO SEE POLICIES OF CONTAINMENT BY THE UNITED STATES. AND WHEN THAT POLICY WAS FIRST ANNOUNCED ON SEMICONDUCTOR ERRORS OCTOBER 7, IT DID NOT GET ATTENTION. PEOPLE TALK ABOUT THE IDEA OF A MILITARY INVASION OF TAIWAN, TRADITIONAL CONVENTION BUILD UP, THE MILITARY EXERCISES, MISSILE TEST, THAT IS NOT WHERE THE FUTURE OF THIS CONFLICT IS GOING. IT IS MUCH MORE ABOUT THE FACT FOR THE LAST 30 YEARS THE UNITED STATES HAS BASICALLY GIVEN UP ON THE PRODUCTION OF SEMICONDUCTORS AND TAIWAN, WHICH IS ONLY ONE HUNTER MILES AWAY FROM THE MAINLAND, IS ABSOLUTELY INDISPENSABLE TO AMERICAN NATIONAL SECURITY AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT. THAT IS MUCH GREATER VULNERABILITY FOR THE UNITED STATES THAN ANY DECISIONS ANGELA MERKEL MADE OVER ENERGY DEPENDENCE ON THE RUSSIANS FOR EXAMPLE BUT IT HAS NOT GOTTEN A LOT OF ATTENTION IN THE UNITED STATES. DAVID: CONNECT THOSE THINGS. I WAS GOING TO ASK ABOUT TAIWAN, HAVE WE PUT BACK THE RING FENCE AROUND TAIWAN THAT HENRY KISSINGER FIRST HIT? IT SEEMED TO BE ERODING. OR THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE AND EXACERBATED BY THE SEMICONDUCTOR SITUATION? > > IT IS ABSOLUTELY A TOP ISSUE DESCRIBED BY XI JINPING AT THE G20 AS A REDLINE FOR CHINA. THAT IS LANG WHICH THEY HAVE NOT EXPOSED LEE USED BEFORE, THAT HE HAS NOT EXPOSED ITALY USED BEFORE, BUT THAT DOES NOT MEAN THERE WILL BE AN INVASION TOMORROW. I HAVE NEVER THOUGHT THE MORE MILITARISTIC HEADLINES AROUND TAIWAN THAT YOU SEE WHEN BIDEN SAYS THE U.S. WILL DEFEND TAIWAN MIGHT WE BE HEADING FOR WAR, IN THE NEAR TERM THE ANSWER IS NO BUT IN THE MEDIUM TO LONG-TERM, THE AMERICANS ARE GOING TO WORK AS HARD AND FAST AS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE CHIPS ACT, THROUGH A NUMBER OF OTHER POLICIES, TO TRY TO ENSURE THE U.S. IS NO LONGER SO VULNERABLE TO TAIWAN AND TSMC. THE CHINESE WILL DO THE SAME THING AND THAT IS NOT LIKELY TO HAPPEN AS SUCCESSFULLY OR QUICKLY FOR BOTH UNITED STATES AND CHINA. ANOTHER WORDS, YOU WILL CHANGE THE STATUS QUO IN THE RELATIONSHIP OVER TAIWAN AS WE START TO COMPETE DIRECTLY AND CONTAINMENT OVER SEMICONDUCTORS. -THAT MAKES THE POLICY OF U.S. CHINA RELATIONS IN TAIWAN SHARPER AND HARDER TO RESOLVE IN THE MEDIUM TO LONG TERM. HERE WE ARE TALKING ABOUT FIVE TO 10 YEARS. DAVID: SO GREAT TO HAVE YOU WITH US AS ALWAYS, IAN OF EURASIA GROUP. COMING UP, TALKING NEW YORK REAL ESTATE WITH BILL RUDIN A PRUDENT MANAGEMENT. THIS IS "BALANCE OF POWER" ON BLOOMBERG TELEVISION AND RADIO. DAVID: THIS IS "BALANCE OF POWER" ON BLOOMBERG TELEVISION AND RADIO. I'M DAVID WESTIN. ONE OF THE AREAS HARD-HIT BY THE PANDEMIC HAS BEEN REAL ESTATE, ESPECIALLY THOSE IN NEW YORK CITY KNOW ABOUT THAT. IT IS COMING BACK, THE QUESTION IS HOW FAST AND HOW COMPLETELY HAS A COMEBACK? WE WELCOME BILL RUDIN, CO-CHAIR AND CEO OF RUDE MANAGEMENT WHICH OWNS, BUILDS, AND MANAGES RESIDENTIAL PROPERTIES THROUGHOUT NEW YORK CITY. WELCOME. GREAT TO HAVE YOU. > > GREAT TO BE HERE IN PERSON. DAVID: IT'S A TREE, WE ARE BACK. HOW FAR BACK IS IT? YOU CONCERT WITH RESIDENTIAL. > > I THINK IT IS DIRECTLY CORRELATED TO WHEN THE VACCINES STARTED COMING OUT. IN THE BEGINNING OF 2021, WE START TO SEE THE MARKET BACK. IT HAD TAKEN A BIG HIT IN 2020 AND EVERY MONTH WE START TO SEE OCCUPANCY GO UP, CONCESSIONS COME DOWN, AND THAT CONTINUED THROUGH NOW. WE STILL SEE TREMENDOUS LEASING ACTIVITY, WE WILL SIGN LIKE HALF-DOZEN LEASES THIS WEEKEND THERE IS TREMENDOUS DEMAND. AND PARTICULARLY AS YOU'VE SEEN IN THE INTEREST RATES GOING UP AND PEOPLE PUT THE BRAKES ON BUYING APARTMENTS -- DAVID: HOW'S THE ASKING, ARE PEOPLE SHIFTING FROM RENTING TO BUYING GIVEN WHAT'S GOING ON WITH INTEREST RATES? > > IN TERMS OF OCCUPANCY AND PEOPLE COMING BACK TO THE CITY, YOU REMEMBER AFTER THE PANDEMIC, PEOPLE WERE LEAVING. THEY ARE BACK AND YOU CAN WALK AROUND THE STREETS, YOU FEEL THE ENERGY, RETAIL IS BACK, PEOPLE ARE OUT IN THE RESTAURANTS. IT IS DEFINITELY POSITIVE VIBE GOING ON. DAVID: WHERE ARE YOU ON OCCUPANCY RATES IN RENTAL COMPARED TO 2018, 2019, BEFORE THE PANDEMIC? > > WE ARE EQUAL TO OR ABOVE WHERE WE WERE. WE ARE ABOUT 95% OR 96% OCCUPANCY. WHEN WE GET AN APARTMENT, WE FIX IT UP AND TURN IT OVER AND WE RENT IT RELATIVELY QUICKLY, MUCH QUICKER TURNAROUND IN TERMS OF MAKING DEALS THAT IT WAS A COUPLE YEARS AGO. DAVID: WHAT ABOUT COMMERCIAL? I HAVE A SENSE IN SOME PLACES IT IS TOUGHER BECAUSE KNOW WE ARE BACK TO WORK, A LOT OF PEOPLE HAVE NOT COME BACK TO THE OFFICE. > > A FUN FACT, WE ARE 38% IN TERMS OF DEAL ACTIVITY COMPARED TO A YEAR AGO. WE ARE 20 MILLION SQUARE-FOOT OF LEASES SIGNED, NOT IN OUR PORTFOLIO BUT THROUGHOUT THE CITY IN MANHATTAN, SO WE HAVE HAD A GOOD THREE QUARTERS HEADING INTO THE FOURTH QUARTER, IT SLOW DOWN A LITTLE BIT TOO COMMERCIAL. I THINK TENANTS ARE LOOKING AT OPPORTUNITIES. WE HAVE SEEN SIGNIFICANT DEALS DONE IN THE LAST SIX MONTHS, COMPANIES LIKE LOWE'S, NIEMEYER'S, AMITY BANK, FIDELITY, SO THE MARKET FOR CLASS A SPACE IS WHERE THE ACTION IS. DAVID: THOSE GO TO BE MY QUESTION, HERE THERE IS CLASS A AND IT IS ROUGHER FOR CLASS B AND CLASS C, PARTICULARLY MIDTOWN. > > ALL OVER THE CITY CLASS B IS STRESSED AT THE MOMENT AND THERE IS A SOLUTION TO IT. IN LOWER MANHATTAN IN THE MID-1990'S, WHEN DOWNTOWN HAD 30 MILLION FEET OF VACANT SPACE, 30% OF THE MARKET, THE CITY AND STATE AND PRIVATE SECTOR CAME TOGETHER AND CREATED THE DOWNTOWN PLAN WHICH CONVERT -- ALLOWED CONVERSIONS OF OBSOLETE OFFICE BUILDING TO RESIDENTIAL. HE WENT FROM 10,000 PEOPLE LIVING IN LOWER MANHATTAN TO 70,000 PEOPLE LIVING IN LOWER MANHATTAN. THAT IS WHAT WE NEED TO DO IN MIDTOWN. DAVID: IS THAT A MATTER OF REGULATIONS RUNNING THINGS OR CAPITAL TO MAKE THE CONVERSION? > > ALL OF THE ABOVE. FIRST WE NEED THE PUBLIC SECTOR TO ALLOW THE ZONING CHANGES, ALLOW TAX INCENTIVES, AFFORDABILITY COMPONENTS, THEN YOU WILL SEE THE PRIVATE SECTOR STEP IN. PEOPLE WANT TO WALK TO WORK. OUR BUILDINGS THAT ARE CLOSE IN MIDTOWN NOT FAR FROM HERE, THOSE ARE USUALLY THE FIRST TO HAVE VACANCY INCREASE AND THE SLOWEST TO COME BACK. THIS TIME AROUND, THEY WERE THE QUICKEST TO COME BACK BECAUSE PEOPLE WANTED TO BE ABLE TO GET CLOSE ACCESS TO THEIR OFFICES. IF THE CITY AND STATE AND I KNOW THE MAYOR AND GOVERNOR REALLY WANT TO DO THIS AND IT IS PART OF THE INCREASING NEED FOR MORE HOUSING AT ALL SECTORS, THIS WILL BE AN IMPORTANT STEP TO ALLOW PEOPLE TO CONVERT THESE BUILDINGS. DAVID: I HAVE TO ASK ABOUT CRIME BECAUSE WHETHER IT IS A PERCEIVED PROBLEM OR REAL PROBLEM IT IS AN ISSUE, I HERE IN NEW YORK AND MAJOR CITIES PEOPLE SAYING I DON'T FEEL SAFE ON THE STREETS. IS THAT AFFECTING YOUR RESIDENTIAL BUSINESS? > > CRIME IS DEFINITELY AN ISSUE AND IT IS NOT IN NEW YORK, SEE ALL OVER THE COUNTRY. I THINK PEOPLE WANT TO BE IN THE CITY, YOU SEE PEOPLE ON THE STREETS, THE MORE IS A VIRTUOUS POSITIVE CYCLE MORE PEOPLE COMING INTO THE CITY SO SUBWAY RIDERSHIP IS UP BUT IT IS SOMETHING THAT NEEDS TO BE ADDRESSED AND FOCUSED ON AT ALL LEVELS OF GOVERNMENT. DAVID: HOW MUCH ARE RATES AFFECTING YOU? YOU BUILD AND REBUILD. YOU HAVE A LOT OF INVESTMENT. I THINK NUMBER THREE TIMES SQUARE, IS THAT AFFECTING YOUR BUSINESS BECAUSE THAT IS A LOT MORE EXPENSIVE? > > IT'S AFFECTING A LOT OF SEGMENT OF THE MARKET. WE SAW THOSE IN FINANCING DONE AT 660 FOR THE AVENUE. THERE WAS FINANCING DONE IN BROOKLYN FOR A RESIDENTIAL PROJECT BUT IT IS DEFINITELY HAVING AN IMPACT OR LUCKILY FOR US WE WERE ABLE TO LOCK RATES GOING IN FORWARD BUT THE MARKET IS DEFINITELY -- THERE IS A LOT OF TURBULENCE IN THE WORLD AND IN THE ECONOMY BUT I THINK LONG-TERM WE WILL GET THROUGH THIS AND THE CITY WILL COME OUT OF THE OTHER SIDE IN A POSITIVE WAY. DAVID: GREAT REVIEW OF NEW YORK REAL ESTATE, APPRECIATED, BILL. THAT IS COCHAIRMAN AND CEO OF RUDEN MANAGEMENT COMPANY. COMING UP AT THE ANTITRUST LAWS HAVE TO SAY ABOUT YOUR DIFFICULTY IN GETTING TAYLOR SO -- TAYLOR SWIFT TICKETS. THIS IS BALANCE OF POWER AND BLUEBIRD TELEVISION AND RADIO. ♪ DAVID: THIS IS "BALANCE OF POWER" ON BLOOMBERG TELEVISION AND RADIO. I'M DAVID WESTIN. THERE IS A CRISIS GOING ON IN AMERICA AND HAS TO DO WITH TAYLOR SWIFT AND GETTING TICKETS TO HER LATEST TOUR. TO TAKE US THROUGH WHAT IS HAPPENING WE WELCOME ED LUDLOW. TELL ME ABOUT WHAT THE PROBLEM IS IN GETTING TICKETS TO TAYLOR SWIFT CONCERTS. > > EARLIER THIS WEEK THERE WAS A PRESALE FOR SELECT FANS TO BUY TICKETS. TICKETMASTER AND THEIR SITE CRASHED, THREE POINT 5 BILLION SYSTEM REQUESTS. WHICH IS FOUR TIMES THEIR PREVIOUS PEAK, BASICALLY HALF OF THE WORLD'S POPULATION WORTH OF DATA, AND LOTS OF PEOPLE WERE DISAPPOINTED. THIS IS TAYLOR SWIFT'S UPCOMING TOUR. THEY WERE GOING TO PUT TICKETS ON GENERAL LEASE THIS FRIDAY AND IT GOT SCRAPPED AND YOU HAVE SWIFT EASE, THE NAME FOR TAYLOR SWIFT FANS, VERY DISAPPOINTED AND THIS STORY HAS GOTTEN QUICKLY POLITICAL. DAVID: I'VE SEEN NOW AS YOU ARE SPEAKING I SAW HEADLINE CROSS THAT SHE SAYS IT IS EXCRUCIATING TO WATCH THE MISTAKES AND SHE SAID SHE WILL PROVIDE MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR FANS. WHAT IS THE GOVERNMENT GOT TO DO WITH IT? I DON'T KNOW THE GOVERNMENT GUARANTEEING I GOT TAYLOR SWIFT TICKETS. DAVID: IT'S ABOUT CONTROL OF THE MARKETS. SOME GROUPS SAY TICKETMASTER CONTROL 70% OF THE LIVE TICKETS. THE COMPANY SAYS THEY SAY IT'S ABOUT 30%. YOU HAVE CUTE LAWMAKERS LIKE SENATOR KLOBUCHAR, CONGRESSMAN CASIO CORTEZ SAYING THIS IS NOT RIGHT, WE NEED TO BREAK UP LIVE -- THE PARENT COMPANY OF TICKETMASTER AND THEY ARE BASICALLY JUMPING ON THE MOMENTUM OF SOCIAL MEDIA, SWIFT EASE, AS THEY ARE KNOWN AS YOU NOW NOW, HAVE BEEN POURING ONTO SOCIAL MEDIA PLATFORMS TO TALK ABOUT THIS. BECAUSE THE SYSTEM WAS BROKEN IN THEIR EYES. 2 MILLION TICKETS WERE SOLD BUT THERE ARE MILLIONS OF PEOPLE WHO WANTED TO BE PART OF THE TOUR THAT WERE LEFT DISAPPOINTED. DAVID: I'M HURT YOU DIDN'T THINK I KNEW TAYLOR SWIFT FANS WERE CALLED SWIFT EASE. IN FAIRNESS, I THINK I DID JUST LEARNED. THANK YOU SO MUCH TO ED LUDLOW REPORTING ON WHAT IS GOING ON WITH TICKETMASTER AND TAYLOR SWIFT. CHECK OUT THE BALANCE NEWSLETTER AND ONLINE. IN THE SECTOR AND OUR WE TALK ABOUT THE WEDDING AT THE WHITE HOUSE TOMORROW. THIS IS "BALANCE OF POWER" ON BLOOMBERG TELEVISION AND RADIO. ♪

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Balance of Power Full Show (11/18/2022)

Bloomberg: Balance of Power" focuses on the intersection of politics and global business. On today's show: William Cohen, former US Defense Secretary. Rep. Robin Kelly, (D-IL). Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group president & co-founder. Bill Rudin, Rudin Management Group co-chair & CEO. (Source: Bloomberg)

The David Rubenstein Show
The David Rubenstein Show: Peer-to-Peer Conversations" explores successful leadership through the personal and professional choices of the most influential people in business.
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