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00:00From the world of politics to the world of business, this is balance of power with David Westin. From Bloomberg's Washington, D.C. studios to our TV and radio audiences worldwide, welcome to Balance of Power. I'm Joe Matthew, in for David Westin. The war in Ukraine is approaching its ninth month now as fighting intensifies. Temperatures in the region sink lower. We are heading for winter. And I spoke with former commander of the U.S. Cyber Command, General Keith Alexander, about the fighting. Here's what he had to say. What Russia is doing is punishing Ukraine civilians by attacking the energy sector. I think what we can do and what others can do is help them rebuild it as fast as we can. We're joined now by retired Brigadier General, former deputy assistant secretary of defense for Middle East Affairs, Mark Kimmitt. General, it's great to see you here. Thank you for being with us. There is a new call in Washington, a bipartisan call for new weapons in Ukraine, specifically armed drones. A number of senators have sent this letter to the Biden administration saying it's time to send more advanced weaponry ahead of winter. Are they right? They really are. First of all, I believe that the switchblade suicide drone is already over there. But the ability to bring a capability like the Predator, which is able not just be a suicide, but can be actually loiter long, you know, fire a lot of rounds, get reload and back up in the air, it would make a big difference. These are Gray Eagle drones, as they're called. I spoke with Mark Hamill recently, the actor Luke Skywalker, who has actually been named the ambassador of drones for Ukraine. They need drones and money to buy them so badly that they're actually using Hollywood to try to make this work. And apparently it is. He's got 500 drones already. But Russia, meantime, is getting its drones from Iran. Is this the war that puts drone warfare into the mainstream? Has it already? Well, I think it does. Not simply armed drones, but the intelligence drones, the surveillance drones has really opened up the battlefield. In the old days. You would take a look at the front lines and you wouldn't see beyond it. But now you can see the length and breadth of the battlefield. Camouflage is gone. So now you not only can see it, but with the guided weapons and the G.P.S. weapons that we have, if you see it, you can shoot it. You can kill it. This comes with a call for more advanced air defense systems as well, along with renewed calls for some of the things we've been hearing about, Wolf, for the past nine months, like fighter jets, MiGs for Ukraine after what we saw in Poland last week. Is it time to start sending whatever they asked for? Well, that really has to be a political decision as much as a military decision, because there is always the risk of spillover intentionally or in the case that we saw in Poland unintentionally. And the question is, do we want to turn this from a fight in Ukraine to a full on battle between Russia and NATO? That's a decision the politicians have to make. You can you can be assured that your military is prepared to do that, but that's the message we'd send. If, for instance, the Poles sent MiGs to Ukraine, now this is NATO versus Russia. I don't necessarily mean think that that would mean that NATO is at war with Russia no matter how much it says it is. There have been countries that have been giving equipment to Ukraine bilaterally for some time now. What Poland wanted to do the first time was give it to the United States and what the United States make the decision. To me, it's a distinction without a difference. The fact remains that they can use those fighter jets inside of Ukraine and can in many ways increase their capability to make this a no fly zone inside of Ukraine. That's what Presidents Lenski has been asking for it to close the skies. That would right. That would achieve it. The name Sam systems that we have sent over there, and I understand there are more on the way, have been 100 percent effective, according to the secretary of defense, Lloyd Austin. They just need more of those. Well, I think we need to distinguish between antiaircraft capabilities, air defense capabilities like NIKKEI Sam and the Patriot and countered drone technology. Drones fly low, they fly slow. They're hard to see on your radars. And nay, Sams is marginally effective, an awful expensive to knock down a three thousand dollar drone. Got it. What we need to do is develop the counter drone cape capability. There has been somewhat of a Manhattan project over the last 10 years to develop the ultimate drone killer. We're not there yet. That's something. So where the technology is not there to actually do this, the name Sands, though, would prevent hopefully the cruise missiles from destroying civilian infrastructure. That's what we've been seeing for days. Right. I think the drones that you're talking about are more of a tactical weapon against the frontline troops. But this strategic air campaign, this this battle of Britain, this blitz that we're seeing by the Russians is not military. It's going against infrastructure. It's going against the people. What it's trying to do is cause the Ukrainians to quit. Quit the war. But I think as Hitler tried to do with Britain's the Brits there, a war to the Ukrainians will not give up at this point, simply increase their resolve. That's what happened in Britain. It did not happen elsewhere, but it certainly did in Great Britain. As I mentioned, we're about nine months into this, which is remarkable to think about. It was back in June that Presidents Lenski told the G7 he wanted this done by the end of the year. We're almost in December. Is that even possible? No. If the war goals, the war aims of President's Alinsky is to take back not only Ukraine cranium territory, but also that part of Ukraine called Crimea. Virtually it would take a decision on the part of Putin to quit the battlefield. I don't think militarily it will happen by the end of this year. OK, so then winter is coming. And this is something that we've talked about a lot. What that means for military strategy or in some cases, how it might incapacitate a lot of military hardware. You mentioned earlier it's not about the ground freezing. It's about a mud bath that's coming. How do you fight in that condition? You don't. It's very difficult. We saw the French get caught up in general mud in 1812. We saw the Russians get caught up in general mud in 1943. General mud. General mud. That's exactly what the Russians call it. It's a significant advantage to the defender disadvantage to the attacker. How do you then strategize if we're going to be fighting through the winter? Where does this actually bring fighting to a stop for a war? It may slow down the offensive operations, the ground operations, but I think as we've seen the Russians continue this strategic bombing campaign that they're running with, the Ukrainians need to do is two things. They need to continue this deep fires battle against the Russian logistics, ammunition against the supply lines, because the key to this winter is going to be replenishment and reconstitution of the forces. I think that we have a decided advantage in the West so that the Ukrainians will be much stronger in the springtime. And we've got to ensure that the Russians do not strengthen those mobilized reservists can't make an impact on the battlefield. So how do you keep the Russians on their heels while you restock, resupply? Well, you prevent them from restocking and refitting their general, but it's going to affect them as well. I would expect there might be some local counter attacks, but I would be surprised to see the type of counter offensives that we've seen in past wars. I do not believe there will be an attack by the Russian army as the Germans did in the Battle of the Bulge. What is the status of the Russian military right now? We're hearing about conscripts coming out of prisons. We're hearing about drunkenness and sloth, as are our friend Rick Davis would call it. This doesn't sound like a military that's very hard to beat, but it does sound like the Russian army. The Russian army has always depended on mass. It doesn't depend on maneuver for them. Quantity has a quality of its all all its own. Take a look at it. None of them want to be there. Well, in the Soviet Union, a war or two, they conveniently had the political officers at the back of the formations while they were attacking. If you tried to escape from the battlefield, they would shoot you. So you had a choice. Go go forward and get killed. Go backwards and get killed. I asked General Alexander this yesterday, who we started with when this finally gets to the negotiating table. I presume volunteers Lansky is on one side. Will Vladimir Putin still be on the other? I make no predictions about political events in other countries. I'm a soldier. I'd like. I'd like not to see him in power this time next year. Yeah, but that's well beyond my remit. Well, your insights mean a lot to us. General, thank you for being with us once again. Retired Brigadier General Mark Kimmitt with us. On balance of power, it's great to see you in person at the desk having a slim majority ruling in the Senate. What's next for the Democratic Party? We're going to talk with former Senator from Montana, Max Baucus. It's on balance of power on Bloomberg TV and radio. This is balance of power on Bloomberg TV and radio. I'm Joe Matthew. Thank you for joining us. U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin urging China to avoid destabilising actions, his words toward Taiwan and what is his first face to face meeting with his counterparts. The Chinese defense minister since Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taipei back in August. Joining us right now is Max Baucus, former U.S. ambassador to China. Ambassador, thank you for being here. The other side of that conversation is a bit more concerning. As the Chinese defense minister says, the Taiwan issue is a red line that cannot be crossed. Are you disappointed to hear that kind of language following the meeting between President Biden and President Xi? I'm not because that's the Chinese view that's been their view ever since Taiwan has been an issue. It is to the Chinese. Taiwan is existential. It's non-negotiable. It's a red line. That's just where they are. And the real key here is for both sides not to trip the wire. That's going to cause some kind of military action one way or the other. And that's the big issue here. General Austin made that point that the Chinese general made that point. That is a tack saying you on the other side, you're you're causing problems. Well, each side thinks that so. And each side knows that. So therefore, it's up to each side. You know that cooler heads prevail. Let's not do something that's kind of stupid. Secretary Austen is in Cambodia for this meeting with his counterpart, aimed at what we are hearing is described as stabilizing our relationship. How would you describe our relationship right now? I think it's much better. We were in a near freefall. It really began to grind on for some time, then accelerated in Anchorage when we learned Tony Blinken on one hand and a young teacher on the other virtually attacked each other and said that her sense. But I think both countries realized that they need each other. We need China. China needs us. And President Xi Jinping wants to stabilize the relationship. And certainly we America want to maintain our national security. But I think that the the Bali meeting between President Xi and President Biden really kind of set the floor, at least I hope so. And a lot of meetings on both sides of that, not just Xi and Biden, but also Vice President Harris met with the XI after meeting with his counterpart. China's agreeing to restart a climate talks. So there are lots of indications that things are starting to get a little better. The relationship started to warm up a little bit, but obviously there are huge issues ahead. The main point is I think that we're maybe on the cusp of a new situation where both countries are starting to be more mature in managing the relationship, be more honest about it, recognizing that either country is going away. We're both going to be here. So let's figure out a way to do this. Well, that's right. Look, President Biden continues to say that the one China policy remains intact, that nothing has changed. The secretary of state has made that clear. But but Joe Biden, as an individual, whether he's a broader here at home, continues to talk like it is changing. How would you advise the administration to conduct itself in a more mature way? To your point, how should we be messaging? Well, make sure that we are adhering to the one China policy, not only in words, but also in deed. And I think there's an opportunity here. The Senate Foreign Relations Committee passed a bill. Now it's called the Taiwan Policy Act, which really digs at China even more respect to Taiwan. And I think the administration thinks that bill goes too far. If administration can indicate that maybe that goes to be amended or not passed, that will send a very strong signal to both Taiwan and United States and to China that, hey, maybe we're we're going to make sure whatever we do is not going to be something is going to be unnecessarily upsetting. Well, Speaker Pelosi is certainly upset some people that that was a seismic moment when she touched down in Taiwan. So was the speaker of the House, though there are a lot of other coattails that that had over there. Kevin McCarthy, the incoming Republican speaker, has said for months that he plans to bring a bipartisan delegation to Taiwan if these visits continue. What does that do to the relationship? Does that increase the temperature? Well, Speaker Pelosi's visit, especially because, after all, she is the speaker. She's there in line of the presidency. That's much different than other visits. And also, she is very striking about it. That was upset the Chinese, whether maybe McCarthy be speaker. We'll see. But if he if he goes, they'll cause some of the same problems. I doubt the Speaker McCarthy is going to go to Taiwan very quickly. He may take his time about this. You don't think that would help? It sounds like I well known. MCCARTHY Well, that just makes it worse. Frankly, administration urged Speaker Pelosi not to go. I'm told, frankly, that Taiwan president's I went also urged Speaker Pelosi not to go, but she wanted to go. And frankly, Kevin McCarthy is a little bit different than Rosie, is she? She's more of a cause. First, she wanted to do it. Yes, right. But McCarthy is more of a politician. He's good. Consider all the different ramifications. And her language, to your point, was strident. But that's a bit of news, Ambassador. The administration has said that it did not tell Nancy Pelosi or ask Nancy Pelosi not to go. And we certainly not heard that from Taipei. They rolled out the red carpet for real once they arrive. Let's big arrived after all. All of red basket red, I'm told by well-placed people. I think no one I trust that the president say when preferred that she not come because I presence. I went nose. The Pelosi visit is really stirring things up. Probably not in a good way. Yeah, well, that's some fascinating inside information. Ambassador Covid restrictions are a big part of the story, of course, right now in China, as you well know. And we're seeing a huge source surge, I should say, in cases here. Health officials say they are sticking with their Covid zero policy, which is now affecting about a fifth of the Chinese economy. That, of course, has reverberations around the world and certainly here in the U.S.. When will China join the United States in essentially moving beyond Covid? It's a big issue for President Xi Jinping. He's made his bed with zero Covid policy and he's kind of stuck with it. It's going to be difficult to save face and yet it's changed the climate policy. But it's because we were told it's cause untold economic harm to not only China but to most parts of the world. They might understand is a trying to relax it, but unfortunately, a lot more Kolbert cases now, which makes that relaxation much more difficult. But they're trying to relax it. So what do they need? We need a partnership on vaccines. That's something the U.S. can do. Well, ISE is really weird. I'm a real outlier here. When read Covid developed in China, we first learned about it. I thought, gee, I state should should send some vaccine over. Join with China. Say we'll work with you. President Trump ought to do that. But no, no, no. The situation was too hawkish. Did I do that? We could help with vaccines. There are some European vaccines that China is not accepting for foreigners. We also need they need vaccines, especially for senior citizens, too. I think most of the seniors above 60 years of age had gotten vaccinated or maybe just one shot. They need to develop a very good vaccine that works. And once they get that place, then they can start to open up more easily that they're those adult proud or too proud, they should open up more and take more foreign vaccines. But remember, it's a huge country. One point four billion people in China. That's that's a big order. You just said a lot of that statement. Ambassador, while you're here, I have to ask you about what's happening on Capitol Hill as we come off the midterm elections. Now a Democratic Senate and a Republican House. You've served in a Democratic led Senate with a Republican House. And I wonder what you think, if anything, will get done in the next two years in this next session, or is the store closed? You know, I mean, this goes against the tide. When I was in Congress, I felt that generally more was done when there was divided government, because then you have to compromise. We want to get something done when the same party is in power. White House said both buys, then the other party is very upset. It throws wrenches in the gears and stops things considerably. Right now, I think clearly it's very political. We're entering 2020 for a presidential year and Republicans in the Senate are going to hold lots investigations trying to embarrass Democrats. That's going to happen. It just gets a given. Also, with all the presidential candidates running, we're pretty hawkish on China. Forced the Congress to also be somewhat hawkish on China. China policy is such essentially determined by domestic politics in the United States today, whether House, Senate, other Democrats. You've got to be really hawkish on China if you want to get re-elected. That's just the way it is. It's unfortunate. I think we're too hawkish. Nobody dares raise his head or her head and say it's nothing even constructive of having his or her head chopped off. So it's it's it's it's. China's going to move large as well. Fascinating. The contrarian Max Baucus with us on Thanksgiving week. Thank you, Ambassador, for being with us. Hope you have a great holiday. You, too. To a balance of power. We'll get a check on the markets with Bloomberg's Gupta straight ahead. This is balance of power on Bloomberg TV and radio. This is balance of power on Bloomberg TV and radio. I'm Joe Matthew in for David Westin. Thanks for joining us. As we turn to Bloomberg Quicktake Gupta for an update on the markets today. Looks like we're hanging positive for greedy as we slide into what will be a shortened trading week. How's it look? A shortened trading week, I should say. Fairly light volume as well. And that's probably why you're seeing so much green on the screen, despite some kind of if he headlines not just from some of the Fed speakers, but you are also hearing this from a potential rail strike on the horizon. But take a look at volume. I love to look at the five day average when it comes to, say, the S & P 500 or the NASDAQ, because it tells you as people gear up for the holidays, where are we really doing? And right now, volume is 13 percent lower on a five day average for the S & P 500. It gets even worse for the NASDAQ. We're looking at almost RTS me for the Dow, almost 20 percent lower. So a little bit green on the screen participation. Joe is really locking into the same dynamic in the bond market as well. The 10 year yield hovering at 376, only down 6 basis points, which gives the volatility we had lately is really nothing. Yeah, well, interesting here, the the looming or potential real strike is is biting back again here. Is it actually moving markets? We don't have news of a strike, but the threat of one can do a lot of damage. Well, the threat of one and look, nothing has actually happened yet in terms of the strike, the idea that it's going to come on as soon as December 5th or December 9th. But at the moment, what's significant here for a lot of the companies, the investment thesis is that companies, carriers like U.P.S., Norfolk Southern are preparing for it. Look, the effect isn't going to happen after the strike commences. It's going to happen before as preparations are being made. And right now, those preparations are indeed being made. Some are saying that the halting of movement, of transportation, of grains, fuel, etc. that's going to happen as soon as after Thanksgiving. So let's get through this week, but definitely keep an eye on this as a market mover as soon as Monday. So, yeah, the timing here with Black Friday looming is not great. Obviously, we think pretty Gupta, as always, for her expertise. And you can catch Christi again in the 1:00 p.m. Eastern hour on Bloomberg Markets. Thanks, Greta. Coming up, protests engulf Iran as their World Cup team appears to show support for protesters. We'll speak with Ambassador Steven Marshall was integrally involved in negotiating the last nuclear deal there. This is balance of power on Bloomberg TV and radio. This is balance of power on Bloomberg TV and radio. I'm Joe Matthew in for David Westin. We keep you up to date now with news from around the world for that. Here's first word with Lisa Matteo. Thank you, Jack. Well, Nancy. Check things out. Was in Abu Dhabi last week trying to raise money for a crypto industry recovery fund. Bloomberg's learn that Dow and his team met with potential backers, among them, UAE national security adviser Sheikh Taj Noon bin Sayid Dow is causing casting himself as the crypto world's rescue in chief after the collapse of FTSE X. The European Commission has proposed an emergency cap on natural gas prices way above the current levels. The ECB is trying to prevent more damage to the economy from Russia's squeeze on energy supplies. The commission is seeking a cap level of about two hundred seventy five per megawatt hour proposal still has to be approved by the EU member nations. The World Health Organization warns that millions of lives are at risk in Ukraine this winter. The U.N. agency cites damaged or destroyed infrastructure that has left 10 million people without power. That's about one fourth of Ukraine's population. And federal prosecutors are going up against Donald Trump's lawyers today. And an appeals court in Atlanta. The U.S. wants to reclaim access to the thousands of documents seized from the former president's Mar a Lago estate. A review by a special master has kept the documents out of investigators hands for months. Global news 24 hours a day on air. And I'm Bloomberg Quicktake powered by more than twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts and more than 120 countries. I'm Lisa Mateo. This is Bloomberg. Lisa, thank you. Massive protests continue in Iran with the government cracking down hard, arresting thousands of people, demonstrating in support of women's rights with the country's World Cup team appearing not to react during the playing of the national anthem. Watch this. They refused to sing. And I'm joined now by Stephen Mull, the coordinator for the Iran Nuclear Deal implementation. Former ambassador to Poland, currently vice provost for global affairs at the University of Virginia. Ambassador, it's great to see you. Thanks for joining us to talk about this. How important is it and how dangerous is it for athletes and other high profile members of the community to protest like this on the world stage? Well, it's controversial, it's quite brave that the Iranians did what they did by not singing the anthem. They are accompanied by secret police everywhere they go overseas. And that display, combined with their captain's pronouncement earlier in the week that he and his team support the aspirations of the protesters back in Iran is really unprecedented in the history of the Islamic republic. So I think it will give a lot of encouragement and support to the protesters back home in Iran, some of whom have been critical that they had been silent up until this this moment. So it's quite dangerous for them. But the Iranians are going to be able to do much with their team on display around the world. So I do worry about their families back home. Well, that was my question. The group, Iran Human Rights, says it has now confirmed the deaths of 76 protesters. Ambassador. What happens to these athletes and their families when they do go home? Well, I think they're they're facing certainly harassment, arrest, questioning. One of the prominent narratives that the Iranian government likes to use against Democratic protesters is that they are agents of the West. Agents of the United States working as spies. So you can't rule out that they will fabricate that. These guys are being are in the pay of the United States, and that can end up with imprisonment and death. The one thing in their favor is that the World Cup is such a public stage and people will be watching what happens to them. We heard earlier today from the administration by way of retired Admiral John Kirby, the spokesman for the White House National Security Council. He says the U.S. is not taking additional sanctions off the table when it comes to Iran. Is there anything that the U.S. can do right now to help these protesters? Well, it's always a difficult choice for American policymakers because whenever the United States stands up in support of democracy in Iran, it runs a substantial risk that the government will turn that argument on its head and accuse Democratic protesters of being agents of the United States. So we have to be really careful in walking a line and putting a spotlight of the world's community on these aspirations for democracy without appearing to be responsible for it. And I think the Biden administration is doing a much better job of that than the Obama administration did during the last mass protests of 2009. President Obama himself said he believes he made a mistake back then. I want to move a little closer to your area of expertise here. Having been the lead implementer of the Iran nuclear deal, as Admiral Kirby also said today, that they have deep concern now about Iran's nuclear program. I didn't say weapons program. A nuclear program is enrichment continues now. Pretty remarkable, 60 percent enrichment. More than half the way to weapons grade enrichment. You would need 90 percent enrichment for an atomic bomb, for instance. Is the prospect of a new Iran nuclear deal officially dead? I think, practically speaking, it is, in fact not to be alarmist, but there well, more than halfway to having weapons grade nuclear material because the higher percentage enrichment you get the fact the quicker it is to get to higher levels. So going from 60 to 90 percent isn't the same as going from 30 to 60. It's a much shorter path going forward. So it is they are getting quite close to that. Practically speaking, though, already there was substantial opposition, bipartisan opposition in Congress to renewing this deal, according to U.S. law passed back in 2015. Any new deal with Iran does require transmittal to the Congress and giving the Congress the right to overturn it. It's any deal now with Iran with such a strong protest, a democratic protest under under way, and not to mention that. Plus Iran's reported close cooperation with the Russian attacks on Ukraine. It's inconceivable to me that there would be any support in the Congress for granting sanctions relief to Iran under these circumstances. I think the administration will probably want to sit back a little bit that we shouldn't be here to begin with if the deal adoption, if we had not gotten out of the deal. Presumably Iran would still be abiding by it. So now we're in a more dangerous place. But I think the administration is going to have to sit back and see where these protests go before looking to re-engage important statements from Steven Marshall. We hear a lot of tough talk and talk about this ambassador from the administration will not stand to allow Iran to become a nuclear power. But the fact of the matter is, they're enriching this uranium at this Fordo plant that is very far underground, heavily protected. Is it something that the United States military could strike? Well, they they they they they could I mean, some of the deep penetration penetrating bunker, so-called bunker buster bombs that the U.S. possesses presumably could could accomplish that. However, just out of step, we want to take given the risk that it would provoke a much wider war in the Middle East, possible retaliation against Israel. I don't think most Americans are in the mood for another war in the in the Middle East. So I think unless Iran actually moved to use a nuclear capability against its adversaries, I think we would look to keep pressure on them in other ways in hopes of avoiding a wider war. But the fact is, you know, it's your point with what we've learned in this conversation, you can get from 60 to 90 pretty quickly here. This plant is way underground and out of our reach right now. The fact of the matter is we don't necessarily have a say in whether Iran becomes a nuclear power. Isn't that right? Well, that's that's that's right. As the Iranian government has increasing headaches on its domestic politics side, with all of these protests, the prospect of military action by the United States or by Israel, which is increasingly indicating under the government, new government, that Netanyahu is likely to lead, that Israel might be very willing to do that. That certainly will be a part of the Iranian leadership's internal calculation. Is this one more problem that they want to do or wants to take over? So that gives us some indirect influence into their decision making. But if they decide to do it short of going to war ourselves, there is there's very little we can do to stop. Well, we always learn something when we speak with the ambassador. Thank you, Stephen Moore. Thank you for your insights today on Bloomberg. Coming up, we'll take a turn toward domestic politics. A lot to talk about, including the investigations and a former president, Donald Trump. Breaking news on that today. This is balance of power on Bloomberg TV and radio. This is balance of power on Bloomberg TV and radio. I'm Jill Matthew. Thanks for joining us. We have news about Donald Trump, the former president now requesting a federal judge to hand over to his legal team, an unredacted version of the affidavit for the search of his Mar a Lago estate. And this is where we start today with our political panel. Kristin Hahn is back with us today, partner at Rock Solutions and Brendan Buck, partner at Seven Letter, former counselor to House Speaker Paul Ryan. It's great to have both of you here. Brendon, I'll start with you. As the Republican in this case, Donald Trump is running for president. He's an official candidate to stories like these helped to reinforce his base who see him as a victim? Yes. Actually, surprising to me that he's leaning into this. The Mara Lago raid the first time actually had it affect of everybody rallying around him. I mean, remember, Republicans have been going after the DOJ and the FBI for years now and painting the picture that this is part of the deep state and they're out to get him. And that's where he gets a lot of his power is. He says, I'm fighting for you. They're elite people in Washington who want to stop me. And so they're coming after me. It didn't surprise me that he's leaning in. I don't think it's particularly good that he's got legal trouble for a general election. But he's gonna try to make most of the situation he's got right now. So this is why the special counsel, Kristen, so they cannot accuse Joe Biden of thumbing the scale. But does anyone believe that? I mean, I think they still. Well, I mean, if we're talking about it from a political perspective, you know, the Republicans were, you know, like Brennan said, as I have been going after DOJ and the FBI for years, with the exception of when you know that the Hillary Clinton emails, that they seem to be fine with that. But, you know, from a political perspective, as far as long term guys, I mean, I'm saying and I will pretend to speak for my Republican friends. But, you know, I don't think it's a long term, good long term strategy for Trump. People want to look forward. And I think that you're seeing a lot of shift to people like Ron, to scientists they see as a new kind of hope for the future. I've asked a lot of people this the perfect storm that you can already see on the horizon, two cases under the new special counsel, Fulton County, Georgia, Southern District of New York. Brennan, what if all of these resolve around the same time during an active presidential campaign? Well, it's really hard to predict how, you know, how they will resolve. Obviously, we built up the Mueller investigation for a very long time, thinking that was going to be the moment that kind of took him down, if you will, and it didn't materialize. And I think it strengthens him in some way. So it's not helpful to have all of this swirling around. And, you know, look at it. I guess we're probably depending if we're talking about in a Republican primary, can he can you play the victim? So much of Donald Trump's persona is that he is the victim. He has these grievances and any any plays that role really well. But if you get to a general election and your nominee is potentially going to be indicted, I think people are ready to move on from either tiring. A bit, a little bit. I think you're seeing that both with Republican primary voters. I don't know if it's enough to stop him. I still think he's the front runner. But certainly, I believe one of the big reasons that he lost to Joe Biden was people were just kind of over it. And if this stuff is still swirling around him, I think that's bad news for him in a general election where a lot of concerns about him being back on Twitter, maybe there's another January 6th in the offing. People can react obviously very strongly to some of these headlines. When does Joe Biden need to announce his decision? Well, the president certainly not working on Donald Trump's timeline. So I think, you know, he'll take his time, make a decision going forward. So yet to be seen, do you try to make this last as long as he can, though, if you're Joe Biden or do you say, no, I'm 80 years old and I am running. He's got doubters out there in his own party. I think, again, you know, he's not working on anybody else's timeline. I think that, you know, it would behoove him to do something, you know, send a message to the party sooner rather than later when I think about the potential Republican presidential candidates who spoke over the weekend. Brendan, at the at the conference that brought Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Chris Sununu. The question is, will Donald Trump clear the field if they're still talking like prospective candidates at RJC or whatever conservative confab is happening? Doesn't that tell us that he has not cleared the field? I'm not quite ready to say that yet. I mean, Carson's point, it's really early, but he's already announced he's running. You know, I think when he first announced in 2015, it was like in June or something. So he's way ahead of schedule. And some of these people have a little bit of time. They can't wait and see what are the polls look like? Do they show him softening to this showing? We've got to show an opening for them. But I think each of them need to make a pretty difficult decision. Is it worth challenging him? Is it worth presenting yourself as anti Donald Trump? Because I don't think you can run against Donald Trump and just say you're you're okay with him. So I think somebody has to actually go at him. And that's a risky proposition for these people, especially some these people who are 25, 30 years younger than him and have long futures at him. Even Ron dissenters, who I think is obviously the person we talk most about, I think there's a real good case that he should wait four more years and let Donald Trump get through the system a little bit more because there's no guarantee that you're going to beat him and you could be pretty damaged after that. And there's certainly no guarantee that if you do beat him in a general election, he's not gonna try to undermine you and you lose the general. So there's a lot to think about if you them. Fascinating. Station with Buck and Horn. Our political panel today as we turn to some breaking news here from the world of sports. Manchester United's. Let's see if we can find that for you. Announcing Cristiano Renaldo is leaving there it is the Premier League that's with immediate effect. He is one of the best known and highest paid soccer players, also the first person in history to pass 500 million followers on Instagram. More of our panel ahead. This is Bloomberg. This is balance of power on Bloomberg TV and radio. I'm Joe Matthew. Thanks for being with us. As we get back to our political panel. Brendan Buck, partner at Seven Letter and Kristin Horne, partner at Rock Solutions here with us to discuss what is left to do or will be done in this lame duck session, the lame duck report. Christine, Max Baucus was sounding pretty optimistic earlier this hour about a divided Congress being forced to get things done, but that starts in January. What about the next couple of weeks here? Can anything happen whether it's codifying same sex marriage? I know that might be punted into the next session, maybe dealing with the debt ceiling or is this all wishful thinking? I think the Democrats will try to do as much as they can. And during the lame duck. So you'll have, you know, I think probably gay marriage and you'll have the omnibus and then whatever any, you know, anything else that that they can put in there and get it across the finish line. I think that you'll see it in there. But there's going to be a lot of scrambling, not a lot of time, but to get a lot of stuff in there. What's the agenda? Brendan, if there is one between now and the end of the year? Well, it has big implications for what the next Congress is going to look like. You mentioned debt limit funding, the government. I mean, those are big questions that if they don't resolve now, we're going to be on Kevin McCarthy's lap right when he takes over a particularly funding the government. So we're talking about a potential shutdown as we we clearly whether or not Congress and the lame duck is able to fund the government for a full year, I think is going to have a really big impact on what Kevin McCarthy speakership looks like in general, because if they don't get it done, that means it probably punting it right into February or March. That's one of the first things he has to do. He was going to be a big bipartisan, ugly bill that he's going to have to shepherd. It is the conservatives are not going to like that very much. So that's a big question. I'm very skeptical. There's enough momentum for a debt limit. Those are some the hardest votes there are. They don't actually have to do that until the second half of next year. So getting their homework done that early seems very unlikely. But again, now would be a big gift. Mitch? Yeah, sure would. And we'd be setting up then without that with another fiscal cliff situation next year. That's that's going to be the moment for this new speaker if he gets the gavel. It will be. And you know, I've heard some reports of, you know, the Republicans not wanting to fund the government for a full year. I mean, politically speaking, that's the best thing you do for Kevin McCarthy. And we always seem to have these fights when Republicans are in control over the debt limit. The reason the Democrats have been much more willing to go forward and make it less of an issue. But I you know, I remember working in the house and, you know, sitting, waiting and trying to figure out the Republican leadership, trying to work with, you know, members of the Freedom Caucus who are holding the debt limit hostage. So I think Brennan's right. A lot of these must pass things that we have to do are going to have to be done on a bipartisan basis. If if the speaker can't pull the entire caucus together and beyond that, I don't have a lot of hope that there's going to be a lot more that is going to get done, particularly leading into a general election year where we're keeping score here on the leadership battle. I'm sure you are as well. Brandon, how difficult is it going to be here for Kevin McCarthy to get to 218 when you have Matt Gates and companies saying they'd rather be waterboarded by Liz Cheney than vote for Kevin McCarthy? It'll be difficult, but I do still think he'll get there. Yeah, it may not be there on the first vote. And I think that's OK. It's something he's going to have to potentially live with. Clearly, you have, I think, five people now who have said they're not going to vote for him. I don't know that that's they'll never vote for him ever. It may just be on the first vote. And they're clearly just trying to grab leverage. To try to get something out of him. But that's going to ultimately become pretty unpopular within the Republican conference. Kevin McCarthy is the choice of that conference to be the next speaker of the House? Overwhelmingly the choice. And at some point, a handful of people hijacking. What is the will of that conference is going to create a lot of pressure on them to finally giving us. All they're doing at that point is working with Democrats to block the will of the conference. So I think you can get there. I'm not willing to predict it's on the first ballot, but I don't think there's anybody better suited to do that. And at some point, he'll be able to lean on them a little bit more. So I think I'll get it. What's Hakeem Jeffries strategy going to be the next two years? Is it obstruct? Is it keep Kevin McCarthy from getting anything done or prove that we can find compromise? Well, I don't think that we need to help the majority that the Republicans obstruct. You know, I think that there is going to be Hakeem. What I was really glad to see with our caucus, it's been in the works for quite a while now, was that there is no intraparty fighting right now. I mean, you saw Hakeem and Katherine Clark kind of emerge and it remarkably smooth. And it's and it's been something that, you know, the congressman and the congresswoman have been working on for for quite a while now. And I'm I feel good about them taking over the caucus, the Democratic caucus. I do think he is somebody who does like to get things done. And anybody who knows Katherine Clark, too. I mean, she she comes to Massachusetts. She comes from more, you know, more of the left side of the caucus. But the reason why there is such smooth sailing is because you have new Dems and Blue Dogs who make up, you know, a little bit more than half the caucus who are backing these people as well, because they listen in. As long as they listen, like the Speaker Pelosi did to her caucus. And negotiate in good faith, then, you know, I think that there is room to be done. But he's a he's a he's an actor in good faith. So fascinating conversation. Could be quite an exercise in herding cats. It sounds like friend. Thank you, Christine. Thank you for being with us as part of our panel here on balance of power. I'm Joe Matthew in for David Westin. I'll meet you four hour two on the radio. This.

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Balance of Power Full Show (11/22/2022)

On Balance of Power with David Westin; Mark Kimmitt, former Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs. Max Baucus, Former United States Ambassador to China. Stephen Mull, Former United States Ambassador to Lithuania. (Source: Bloomberg)

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