Skip to content
Bloomberg the Company & Its ProductsThe Company & its ProductsBloomberg Terminal Demo RequestBloomberg Anywhere Remote LoginBloomberg Anywhere LoginBloomberg Customer SupportCustomer Support
  • Bloomberg

    Connecting decision makers to a dynamic network of information, people and ideas, Bloomberg quickly and accurately delivers business and financial information, news and insight around the world

    For Customers

    • Bloomberg Anywhere Remote Login
    • Software Updates
    • Manage Products and Account Information

    Support

    Americas+1 212 318 2000

    EMEA+44 20 7330 7500

    Asia Pacific+65 6212 1000

  • Company

    • About
    • Careers
    • Diversity and Inclusion
    • Tech At Bloomberg
    • Philanthropy
    • Sustainability
    • Bloomberg London
    • Bloomberg Beta
    • Gender-Equality Index

    Communications

    • Press Announcements
    • Press Contacts

    Follow

    • Facebook
    • Instagram
    • LinkedIn
    • Twitter
    • YouTube
  • Products

    • Bloomberg Terminal
    • Data
    • Trading
    • Risk
    • Indices

    Industry Products

    • Bloomberg Law
    • Bloomberg Tax
    • Bloomberg Government
    • BloombergNEF
  • Media

    • Bloomberg Markets
    • Bloomberg Technology
    • Bloomberg Pursuits
    • Bloomberg Politics
    • Bloomberg Opinion
    • Bloomberg Businessweek
    • Bloomberg Live Conferences
    • Bloomberg Radio
    • Bloomberg Television
    • News Bureaus

    Media Services

    • Bloomberg Media Distribution
    • Advertising
  • Company

    • About
    • Careers
    • Diversity and Inclusion
    • Tech At Bloomberg
    • Philanthropy
    • Sustainability
    • Bloomberg London
    • Bloomberg Beta
    • Gender-Equality Index

    Communications

    • Press Announcements
    • Press Contacts

    Follow

    • Facebook
    • Instagram
    • LinkedIn
    • Twitter
    • YouTube
  • Products

    • Bloomberg Terminal
    • Data
    • Trading
    • Risk
    • Indices

    Industry Products

    • Bloomberg Law
    • Bloomberg Tax
    • Bloomberg Government
    • Bloomberg Environment
    • BloombergNEF
  • Media

    • Bloomberg Markets
    • Bloomberg
      Technology
    • Bloomberg Pursuits
    • Bloomberg Politics
    • Bloomberg Opinion
    • Bloomberg
      Businessweek
    • Bloomberg Live Conferences
    • Bloomberg Radio
    • Bloomberg Television
    • News Bureaus

    Media Services

    • Bloomberg Media Distribution
    • Advertising
  • Bloomberg

    Connecting decision makers to a dynamic network of information, people and ideas, Bloomberg quickly and accurately delivers business and financial information, news and insight around the world

    For Customers

    • Bloomberg Anywhere Remote Login
    • Software Updates
    • Manage Contracts and Orders

    Support

    Americas+1 212 318 2000

    EMEA+44 20 7330 7500

    Asia Pacific+65 6212 1000

Bloomberg Bloomberg UK
Switch Editions
  • UK
  • Europe
  • US
  • Asia
  • Middle East
  • Africa
  • 日本
Sign In Subscribe
  • Bloomberg TV+

    Bloomberg Markets Europe

    Bloomberg Markets Europe

    Anchored by Anna Edwards and Mark Cudmore, Bloomberg Markets Europe is a fast-paced hour of news and analysis, building towards the drama and excitement of the start of the cash trade across the continent.

    Bloomberg Radio

    Bloomberg Daybreak Europe

    Bloomberg Daybreak Europe

    Overnight on Wall Street is morning in Europe. Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, anchored live from London, tracks breaking news in Europe and around the world. Markets never sleep, and neither does Bloomberg News. Monitor your investments 24 hours a day, around the clock from around the globe.

    Listen

    Bloomberg Originals

    Idea Generation: Just Blaze-

    Idea Generation: Just Blaze

    On this week's episode of Idea Generation, renowned record producer Just Blaze explains how he built one of the most impressive resumes in music, taking us on a journey from his early days as a math prodigy in Paterson, New Jersey, to becoming one of the premier beatmakers in music. Having helped shape the sound of Roc-A-Fella records, he earned a reputation as one of the most sought after pens in the game and later went on to score video games.

    Also streaming on your TV:

    • Markets
      Markets
      • Deals
      • Odd Lots
      • The FIX | Fixed Income
      • ETFs
      • FX
      • Factor Investing
      • Alternative Investing
      • Economic Calendar
      • Markets Magazine
      London Rush homepage

      Business

      Next Trims Expected Price Hikes as Costs Fall: The London Rush

      Next Plc Stores Ahead Of Earnings

      Future of British Business

      UK Retailer Next Dials Down Inflation Estimates

      Market Data

      • Stocks
      • Commodities
      • Rates & Bonds
      • Currencies
      • Futures
      • Sectors
      View More Markets
    • Economics
      Economics
      • Indicators
      • Central Banks
      • Jobs
      • Trade
      • Tax & Spend
      • Inflation & Prices
      Kenyan Economy as Country Seeks $2.3 Billion IMF Loan

      Central Banks

      Kenya Set to Hike Rates to Counter Currency Slump

      Bank of Japan Headquarters

      Central Banks

      BOJ’s Key Policy Architect Signals Yield Curve Tweak May Come as a Surprise

      Czech Economy Ahead of Presidential Election

      Central Banks

      Czechs to Hold Rates With Focus on Path to Cuts: Decision Guide

      View More Economics
    • Industries
      Industries
      • Consumer
      • Energy
      • Entertainment
      • Finance
      • Health
      • Legal
      • Real Estate
      • Telecom
      • Transportation
      Retail In Hong Kong As Protests Rage

      Consumer

      Hong Kong Cosmetics Giant Raises Doubts Over Tourism Revival

      General Economy in Pattaya Ahead of Thailand's CPI

      Markets

      Thailand Set to Sustain Quarter-Point Hike as Election Heats Up

      Featured

      • Business of Sports
      View More Industries
    • Technology
      Technology
      • Code Wars
      • Checkout
      • Prognosis
      Goldman Sachs Hands Clients Losses In 'Top Trades'

      Deals

      Goldman Trio of Senior Tech Bankers Exit Amid Deals Slowdown

      Alibaba Headquarters Ahead of Earnings Announcement

      Technology

      Alibaba’s $32 Billion Day Signals Breakups for China Tech

      DBS Profit Beats Estimates on Lending, Pays Special Dividend

      Technology

      Singapore’s DBS Says Digital Banking Services ‘Intermittent’

      View More Technology
    • Politics
      Politics
      • US
      • UK
      • Americas
      • Europe
      • Asia
      • Middle East
      TOPSHOT-UKRAINE-RUSSIA-CONFLICT-WAR

      Politics

      Ukraine Latest: Zelenskiy Warns of Dangers of Bakhmut Defeat

      Any Russian victory could be perilous: Ukraine’s Zelenskyy 

      Politics

      Any Russian victory could be perilous: Ukraine’s Zelenskyy 

      Featured

      • Next China
      View More Politics
    • Wealth
      Wealth
      • Investing
      • Living
      • Opinion & Advice
      • Savings & Retirement
      • Taxes
      • Reinvention
      Dartmouth Posts 47% Endowment Return

      Living

      Ivy League Prices Are Pushing $90,000 a Year

      South Florida Replacing Palm Trees With Leafy Trees To Combat Climate Change

      Living

      New Yorkers Are Moving to These Three Florida Cities

      Featured

      • How to Invest
      View More Wealth
    • Pursuits
      Pursuits
      • Travel
      • Autos
      • Homes
      • Living
      • Culture
      • Style
      Champagne Is Outperforming Gold and the S&P 500. Here’s What to Buy

      Wine

      Champagne Is Outperforming Gold and the S&P 500. Here’s What to Buy

      Washington Commanders Introduce Carson Wentz

      Deals

      Josh Harris-Led Group Bids for NFL’s Washington Commanders

      Featured

      • Screentime
      • New York Property Prices
      • Where to Go in 2022
      View More Pursuits
    • Opinion
      Opinion
      • Business
      • Finance
      • Economics
      • Markets
      • Politics & Policy
      • Technology & Ideas
      • Editorials
      • Letters
      FILES-US-TECHNOLOGY-AI-DEEPFAKES-DISINFORMATION-MISINFORMATION

      Leonid Bershidsky

      The Deepfake Revolution May Bring a Media Revival

      Jobseekers At A Construction Trade Career Fair

      John Authers

      Are Consumers Keeping Their Heads or Losing Them?

      'Old-School' Signature Bank Collapsed After Its Big Crypto Leap

      Marc Rubinstein

      The US Is Paying the Price for Being Overbanked

      View More Opinion
    • Businessweek
      Businessweek
      • The Bloomberg 50
      • Best B-Schools
      • Small Business Survival Guide
      • 50 Companies to Watch
      • Good Business
      • Subscribe to the Magazine
      SVB’s Collapse Shows the World’s Favorite Safe Asset Isn’t Risk-Free

      The Big Take

      SVB’s Collapse Shows the World’s Favorite Safe Asset Isn’t Risk-Free

      Starting a Company? Better Sign Up for Video Coaching

      Small Business

      Starting a Company? Better Sign Up for Video Coaching

      Peru’s Indigenous Sacrifice Livelihoods in a Quest to Oust the President

      Economics

      Peru’s Indigenous Sacrifice Livelihoods in a Quest to Oust the President

      View More Businessweek
    • Equality
      Equality
      • Corporate Leadership
      • Capital
      • Society
      • Solutions
      Japan LGBTQ Bill Faces Ruling Party Roadblocks, Lawmaker Says

      Equality

      Japan LGBTQ Bill Faces Ruling Party Roadblocks, Lawmaker Says

      SLOVAKIA-POLITICS-PROTEST

      Equality

      Slovak Lawmakers Rebuke Europe for Call to Improve LGBTQ Rights

      Featured

      • In Trust Podcast
      View More Equality
    • Green
      Green
      • New Energy
      • ESG Investing
      • Weather & Science
      • Electric Vehicles
      • Climate Politics
      • Greener Living
      • Cleaner Tech
      UK Offshore Wind Gets a Boost With ScottishPower’s £1.5 Billion Turbine Deal

      Green

      UK Offshore Wind Gets a Boost With ScottishPower’s £1.5 Billion Turbine Deal

      PBOC Headquarters In Beijing As China Ramps Up Liquidity Injection Amid Bond Market Turmoil

      Green

      PBOC’s Yi Says Funding for Green Loans at 300 Billion Yuan

      Featured

      • Data Dash
      • Hyperdrive
      View More Green
    • CityLab
      CityLab
      • Design
      • Culture
      • Transportation
      • Economy
      • Environment
      • Housing
      • Justice
      • Government
      • Technology
      Electric Scooters Restricted After Dangerous Year In Paris

      Transportation

      Paris Is Sending the Future of E-Scooters to a Vote

      City Clashes With Guerrilla Gardeners Over Urban Forest Plans

      Environment

      Madrid’s Urban Forest Isn’t Taking Root

      Kansas State Capitol Building

      CityLab

      Money Managers Raise Alarms Over Anti-ESG Crusade in GOP States

      View More CityLab
    • Crypto
      Crypto
      • Decentralized Finance
      • NFTs
      • Regulation
      • Technology
      Crypto Crackdown Puts Binance-Linked Stablecoin in Crosshairs

      Crypto

      Crypto Prices Drop as CFTC Sues Binance Over Trading Violations

      Coinbase Global Debuts Initial Public Offering At Nasdaq MarketSite

      Crypto

      Coinbase Calls for Efforts to Create Inflation-Proof Stablecoins

      Bitcoin Steadies After Ending Longest Winning Streak Since 2013

      Crypto

      Bitcoin Liquidity Hits 10-Month Low Even With the Price Surging

      View More Crypto

Live on Bloomberg TV

CC-Transcript

  • 00:00I AM JOHN HYLAND. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. ♪ JOHN: WELCOME TO BLOOMBERG MARCUS. KRITI: LET'S START WITH PRICE ACTION. A SELLOFF WHEN IT COMES TO THE EQUITY AND BOND MARKET. INTERESTING MOVES, WE STARTED OFF THE DAY WITH BAD JOBS DATA. GOOD JOBS DATA, BUT BAD FOR THE MARKET. 517,000, SENDING THE MARKET DOWN BY 1.3% ALMOST FOR IT TO GO POSITIVE AND REVERSE DOWN 1%. THAT IS WHAT WE ARE SEEING IN THE S & P 500. THE TWO YEAR YIELD MATTERS, A 16 BASIS POINT MOVE TO THE UPSIDE. ENORMOUS'S WHEN YOU TALK ABOUT THE BOND MARKET SELLOFF. WHAT IS THE BOND MARKET PRICING IN? WHAT IS PREVAILING, THE STOCK STORY OR THE FED THAT IS IN CHARGE? DOLLAR HIGHER, THE STRENGTH IS CRUCIAL COMING OFF THE BACK OF THE ECB DECISION YESTERDAY. WEAKNESS IN THE GREENBACK REVERSE TODAY, STRONGER BY 1.2%. WENT CREW TRADING WITH A 80 HANDLE, THE LOWEST WE HAVE SEEN IN A COUPLE OF WEEKS. JOHN: WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON ENERGY STOCKS. FOR TECHNOLOGY, THE STREETS STILL REACTING TO BIG EARNINGS STORIES. WE DID SEE WEAKNESS CONTINUING FOR AMAZON AND ALPHABET. APPLE SHARES, INTERESTING TO SEE A TURN. UP TO .5%. A LOT OF MESSAGING FROM APPLE WAS THEY WERE CHALLENGED IN THE QUARTER BECAUSE OF CHINA COMPLICATIONS. IF THEY CAN DELIVER IN THE UPCOMING QUARTER, MAY BE THE SENTIMENT STARTS TO TURN. TESLA, THE UPDATE FROM THE TREASURY ON TAX CREDITS HAS PUSHED UP SHARES TODAY. FORD IS UNDER PRESSURE AFTER GENERAL MOTORS STRONG QUARTER, INVESTORS SURPRISED BY THE DISAPPOINTING PICTURE OVER AT FORD. SOME OF IT TIED TO SUPPLY SHORTAGES. THE COMPANY SAYING THEY COULD HAVE EXECUTED BETTER. AN INTERESTING DEVELOPMENT IN DUES -- IN DISNEY. THE COMPANY MAY THINK ABOUT SELLING MORE OF ITS FILM AND TV PRODUCTS, CONTENT, TO OTHER STREAMING PLAYERS. THEY HAVE BEEN PUTTING ALL OF THEIR ENERGY INTO SERVICES LIKE DISNEY+. THAT HAS BEEN A COSTLY STRATEGY FOR THEM. THAT BLOOMBERG REPORT TALKING ABOUT A POSSIBLE NEW AVENUE AHEAD FOR DISNEY, WHICH WE WILL WATCH. KRITI: INTERESTING HOW THE DISNEY STORY AND I WOULD RUG -- WOULD ARGUE NETFLIX THE WAY THIS IS TRANSFORMING IS THIS AND FILM IN TERMS OF THE BUSINESS MODEL. LET'S BRING IT BACK TO THE TRADE OF THE DAY, THE JOBS REPORT. U.S. LABOR SECRETARY MARTY WALSH TALKED ABOUT THE MASSIVE UPSIDE SURPRISE EARLIER TODAY. [VIDEO CLIP] > > I LOOKED AT MY ECONOMIST AND SAID, YOU'RE WAY OFF TODAY. IT WAS A GREAT REPORT. YOU LOOK AT AREAS OF -- THAT I THINK ARE IMPORTANT, BUSINESS GROUP, HEALTH CARE, EDUCATION GROUP. THE AREAS THAT YOU WOULD KNOW BETTER THAN I WOULD AS CONCERNS FOR THE ECONOMY -- I WILL TAKE THIS JOBS REPORT ANY DAY OF THE WEEK. JON: LET'S STAY ON THIS STORY OF THE JOBS SURPRISE. JOINING US NOW, JOE DAVIS. YOU HEARD MARTY WALSH SAYING WHAT IS UP TO HIS ECONOMIST TEAM. HEARD YOU DID A DOUBLE TAKE YOURSELF AS YOU LOOK AT THE PRINT TODAY. JOE: CERTAINLY. I THINK THIS WOULD BE EXHIBIT A OF UPSIDE SURPRISE. I THINK HOWEVER, IT IS IMPORTANT TO LOOK AT WHERE THE TRENDS ARE. THIS REAFFIRMED IN MY MIND THE CONSIDERABLE MOMENTUM WE HAVE HAD IN THE LABOR MARKET AND WE HAVE A LABOR MARKET THAT IS CONSIDERABLY TOO TIGHT. THAT IS SOMETHING WE HAVE HEARD FROM CHAIRMAN POWELL. IT IS WHY CENTRAL BANKS HAVE BEEN NORMALIZING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND THAT WE ARE NOT IN THE WINDOW WE WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A SLOWDOWN FROM THE FED TIGHTENING. THAT IS YET TO COME. KRITI: JOE, YOU WEAR TWO HATS. YOU ARE CHIEF ECONOMIST AT VANGUARD, THE CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST IF I AM NOT WRONG. THE TWO YEAR YIELD, 426, HIGHER BY 16 BASIS POINT ON THE DAY PRICING AND PERHAPS HAWKISH ACTION BY THE FEDERAL RESERVE. IS THIS GOING TO CHANGE THEIR MIND? HOW DOES THE FED REACT TO A NUMBER LIKE THIS? JOE: ONE SAYS WE HAVE NOT SEEN THE MATERIAL DECELERATION OF THE LABOR MARKET TODAY. SOME WEAKNESS WE WERE SEEING TOWARD THE END OF LAST YEAR IS A LEGACY OF THE SUPPLY SHOCK, WHICH WAS PROFOUND AND INFLATIONARY. AT THE SAME TIME, THEY ARE ATTUNED THAT THERE FULCRUM OF TIGHTENING IS NOT FAIR NOW IN THE ECONOMIC DATA. THAT IS THE SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR. THIS WHOLE DEBATE OF SOFT LANDING, NO LANDING AT ALL IS PREMATURE IF WE CONSIDER WHERE THE LAGS ARE IN POLICY. THAT IS THE SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR. I AM NOT SAYING A SOFT LANDING IS IMPOSSIBLE. I'M SAYING WE CANNOT LOOK AT TODAY'S NUMBERS OR THE NEXT TWO MONTHS AND DECLARE VICTORY ON THAT FRONT. JON: ON THAT BACKDROP, IS THERE A WAY TO QUANTIFY WHERE WE ARE IN THE DISINFLATION PROCESS? JOE: I THINK SO. I THINK IF YOU LOOK AT WHAT WAS DRIVING INFLATION BROADLY SPEAKING, ROUGHLY HALF OF IT WAS SUPPLY RELATED LAST YEAR. HATH WAS DEMAND. I THINK THE CONSENSUS EXPECTATIONS WERE THAT THE SUPPLY RELATED SHOCKS, PARTICULARLY THE GOOD SIDE, THE ENERGY SIDE WOULD COME DOWN RAPIDLY IN 2023. THAT IS TRACKING FAIRER THAN EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THOSE THAT ARE STICKIER COMPONENTS ARE NOT RISING EVEN FASTER THAN EXPECTED, BUT HAVE YET TO FULLY QUELL. WE HAVE SEEN MODERATION. IT IS GOING TO COME BACK TO THE LABOR MARKET AND THIS IMBALANCE BETWEEN VACANCIES, WHICH IS LABOR DEMAND AND THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE. THAT IS GOING TO DICTATE WHERE WE ARE IN THE TIGHTENING CYCLE TOWARDS THE END OF THIS YEAR. KRITI: WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE STOCK MARKET AND BOND MARKET PRICING AND FED CUTS THAT ARE STARTING SOMETIME IN DECEMBER OF 2023 ACCORDING TO THE MARKET BID , WHAT IS IT GOING TO TAKE FOR THE FEDERAL RESERVE TO BRING THAT TO FRUITION? JOE: I THINK WE NEED TO SEE FURTHER DECELERATION. I WOULD EVEN GO FURTHER TO SAY MORE CRACKING IN THE LABOR MARKET. A 3.5% UNEMPLOYMENT RATE PLUS OR MINUS WITH WAGE GROWTH, 4% OR HIGHER IS NOT CONSISTENT WITH LONG-RUN STABILITY. EVERY CENTRAL BANK WOULD TELL YOU THAT, IT IS WHY THE FEDERAL RESERVE AND OTHERS HAVE BEEN AGGRESSIVE. I THINK IT IS LIKELY WE WILL SEE A PAUSE AS WE GET TO ROUGHLY 5.25%. OUR OUTLOOK HAS NOT CHANGED. IF YOU THINK WE LIVE IN THE OLD WORLD, YOU WOULD EXPECT A MARKET SELLOFF IN THE ECONOMY, A DECELERATION IN THE ECONOMY THE SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR. THAT IS WHY THE MARKET IS EXPECTING EASING. WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE THAT IS GOING TO DICTATE TRACKS IN THE LABOR MARKET THE NEXT SIX MONTHS. JON: BEFORE WE WRAP THINGS UP, WE TALKED LESS ABOUT THE BALANCE SHEET REALITIES. IN TERMS OF HOW THE FED NAVIGATES ON THAT FRONT BEYOND MOVES ON INTEREST RATES, YOU ARE WATCHING THAT CLOSELY AS WELL? JOE: CERTAINLY. I THINK IT WAS LONG OVERDUE THAT WE WITHDRAW LIQUIDITY FROM THE SYSTEM. I HAVE BEEN SURPRISED BY THE RECENT MOMENTUM IN THE MARKET. IF ANYTHING, IT IS COUNTERPRODUCTIVE TO A CENTRAL BANK TRYING TO COOL POLICY. BUT, THE MARKETS CAN BE SOMEWHAT FICKLE. FROM AN INVESTOR STANDPOINT WHAT IS A CLEAR POSITIVE IS THE HAVE MORE REAL RATES THAT ARE POSITIVE ACROSS THE TERM STRUCTURE THAT IS A FOUNDATION FOR LONGER RUN RETURNS. BUT, WE HAVE TO BE PREPARED FOR TALKING IS PARTICULARLY WHEN YOU ARE AT A POTENTIAL TURNING POINT. I THINK THAT WILL BE A THEME THIS YEAR. JON: VANGUARD'S JOSEPH DAVIS. KRITI: WE THANK YOU AS ALWAYS. COMING UP, MORE INSIGHT ON THIS JOB SUPPORT AND HOW IT IS AFFECTING THE TREASURY MARKET. OUR GUEST IS MICHAEL SPENCE, ABOUT THIS ISSUE AS WELL AS MEGAN'S WIPER. --MEGAN SWIBER. KRITI: THIS IS BLOOMBERG MARKETS. LET’'S GET BACK TO THE SURPRISING U.S. JOBS REPORT. WE ARE CURRENTLY SEEING A DOWNTURN IN THE S & P 500 AS TRADERS DIGEST THE SHOCKING PAYROLLS NUMBER. 517 THOUSAND. TREASURY YIELDS ARE SURGING OFF THE REPORT. WHO BETTER TO DIGEST IT THEN MICHAEL? AS WELL AS MEGAN SWEIBER? I WANT TO START WITH THE MARKET ACTION. MEGAN, LET'S COME TO YOU FIRST. THIS IDEA OF A MOVE OF 16 BASIS POINT ON THE FRONT END OF THE YIELD CURVE, HOW MUCH OF THAT IS HITTING THE TOP END OF THE TRADING RANGE OR HOW MUCH OF THAT IS SOMETHING THE FEDERAL RESERVE ME TO PANIC ABOUT? > > [LAUGHTER] GREAT QUESTION TO KICK US OFF. INDEED, WE ARE SEEING THE MARKETS SPOHN TO THIS INCREDIBLY SURPRISING PAYROLLS REPORT THAT WE GOT TODAY. REALLY WHAT WE SEE THE MARKET DOING IS PRICING THE FED MEETING TO HIKE FOR THIS LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. IT IS OUR BASE CASE SCENARIO RIGHT NOW THE FED WILL DO ANOTHER 225 BASIS RATE HIKES. I THINK THE MESSAGE FROM THE REPORTS SUGGESTED THE FED HAS DONE NOTHING TO REBALANCE THE LABOR MARKET, WHICH WAS THE SIGNAL THEY WERE SENDING WHEN WE LOOK BACK SEVERAL MONTHS AGO AT JACKSON HOLE. IN TERMS OF THE MESSAGE WHAT THE FED NEEDED TO DO TO CALM INFLATION. PROFESSOR SPENCE, WHAT DO YOU THINK THE CHALLENGE HAS BEEN IN REBALANCING THE LABOR MARKET? > > I THINK THE BIG CHALLENGE COMES FROM SOME LONGER-TERM TRENDS. WE KNOW WE HAD A DEMAND SURGE AND TRANSITORY BLOCKAGES. AS OUR PREVIOUS SPEAKER SAID, THEY ARE FADING. BUT, WE HAVE AGING POPULATIONS, A RETIRING LABOR FORCE, A YOUNG GROUP WHO DOES NOT WANT TO WORK IN CERTAIN SECTORS AND SO ON. I THINK WHAT THE FED IS COMING TO REALIZE AND MANY OTHERS INCLUDING INVESTORS IS THAT THEY CHALLENGE OF REACTING TO THE LOWER SUPPLY ELASTICITY IS MUCH BIGGER THAN WE THOUGHT. I FIND THE NEXT FEW MONTHS UNPREDICTABLE. WE ARE IN UNCHARTED TERRITORY. WE LIVED SO LONG WITH A SUPPLY-SIDE THAT SEEMED INFINITELY ELASTIC. IT JUST NOT -- IT JUST IS NOT ANYMORE. KRITI: MIKE, I WANT TO ASK ABOUT WHAT THE ROAD MAP IS WHEN IT COMES TO HISTORICAL PRECEDENT GREAT IS THIS A REPEAT OF THE 1980'S? MICHAEL: I DO NOT THINK SO. SOME OF THIS BUILT IN INFLATIONARY FORCES INDEXING POWERFUL UNIONS THAT YOU SAW IN MANY COUNTRIES IN EUROPE AND THE U.K. AND THE UNITED STATES ARE ALL GONE. SO AT A AGGREGATE LEVEL, YOU -- WE HAVE SUPPLY CONSTRAINTS THAT WERE ABSENT MUCH OF THE LAST FOUR DECADES BECAUSE OF THE HUGE GROWTH AND EMERGING ECONOMIES AND THEIR MASSIVE SUPPLY INCREASE INTO GLOBAL ECONOMY. THERE IS THAT DEGREE OF SIMILARITY, BUT I THINK INSTITUTIONALLY THIS FEELS DIFFERENT. THESE ARE MARKET IMBALANCES WHERE, WHENEVER WE GET HEALTHY BALANCE SHEETS AMID A SURGE, PEOPLE TRY TO BUY MORE IN THE SUPPLY SIDE IS HAVING TROUBLE REACTING TO IT. JON: MEGHAN, LET'S PUT THIS INTO A TIME FRAME. I BELIEVE YOU AND YOUR TEAM HAVE TALKED ABOUT INFLATION LEVELS THAT WE HAVE BECOME ACCUSTOMED TO IN RECENT YEARS, OR AT LEAST TARGET LEVELS FOR CENTRAL BANKS LIKE THE FED THAT IT IS NOT REALISTIC IN YOUR TEAM'S VIEW TO BE GETTING BACK THERE UNTIL THE BACK HALF OF 2024? MEGHAN: THAT IS CORRECT. ONE POINT YOU BROUGHT UP EARLIER WAS THE EXTENT OF CUTS PRICED IN TO THE SECOND HALF OF THIS YEAR. THAT IS BEEN SOMETHING THAT IS -- THAT HAS MODERATED HOW MUCH WE ARE ABLE TO SEE THE TWO-YEAR RATE GO HIGHER. LIMITED TO THE EXTENT WE CAN SEE RATES MOVE HIGHER ACROSS THE CURVE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. AS THE FED HAS BEEN GUIDING TOWARD REACHING THIS TERMINAL RATE, HOWEVER ONE THING WE LOOK AT SPECIFICALLY IN INFLATION MARKETS AS YOU HAVE REFERENCED IS HOW QUICKLY THE MARKETS EXPECTING US TO GET BACK DOWN TO THE FEDS TARGET CPI READING. YOU SEE THE MARKET EXPECTING THE FED TO BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE THIS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE YEAR AND BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN THOSE LOW INFLATION LEVELS OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR. WE THINK SPECIFICALLY GIVEN TODAY'S REPORT, THE PMI'S WE HAVE BEEN SEEING, IT DOES RISK THE ABILITY OF INFLATION TO FALL SO QUICKLY. CERTAINLY, THE STORY HAS BEEN THE PAST COUPLE CPI PRINTS WE HAVE GOTTEN A LOT OF LOWER INFLATIONARY PRESSURES COMING FROM GOODS, COMMODITIES. THAT HAS HELPED THE FED OUT. WHAT THEY ARE GOING TO BE ATTENTIVE TO, SPECIFICALLY AS A LABOR MARKET REMAINS SO STRONG, IS THE SERVICES COMPONENT. THAT IS THE PART OF THE INFLATION BASKET THE FED DEALS LIKE IT HAS SOME CONTROL OVER AND WE HAVE YET TO SEE THE SERVICES COMPONENT OF INFLATION SHOWS SIGNS OF MODERATION. KRITI: PROFESSOR SPENCE, WAY IN HERE. IF YOU WERE LOOKING AT A FEDERAL RESERVE WHO CANNOT SEEM TO TACKLE THE WAGE PIECE OF THE EQUATION MEGHAN WAS TALKING ABOUT WHILE STARING AT DISINFLATION AND INFLATION, WHAT DO YOU DO IF ANYTHING IF YOU WERE CHAIR POWELL? MICHAEL: WELL, FIRST OF ALL, I AM GLAD I AM NOT. THAT HAS TO BE ONE OF THE HARDEST KNOBS IN THE WORLD RIGHT NOW. I THINK I WOULD DO ROUGHLY WHAT THEY ARE DOING, THEY HAVE SEEN SOME SIGNS OF PROGRESS IN DEALING WITH INFLATION SO THEY STARTED TO SLOW DOWN. BUT, THEY HAVE NOT PROMISED IT TO STAY SLOWED DOWN AND HAVE NOT PROMISED ANYTHING ON A TIMER WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAST THEY ARE GOING TO GET THIS DONE. I AGREE WITH MEGHAN, THE MARKETS ARE MAKING ALL KINDS OF ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT THAT. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THIS TAKES TWO YEARS, I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE LAST 1.5% TO 2% TURNS OUT TO BE REALLY HARD AND PAINFUL. THEY ARE NAVIGATING LIKE THE REST OF US WITH PRETTY INCOMPLETE INFORMATION AND FORECASTING. JON: AND PROFESSOR SPENCE, WHEN IT COMES TO THE IDEA OF A RECESSION, WHERE DO YOU WEIGH IN ON THAT GIVEN WHAT YOU JUST SAID? MICHAEL: ON THE U.S. ECONOMY, I THINK THE STRENGTHS ARE SUFFICIENTLY LARGE THAT WE ARE GOING TO HAVE A GROWTH SLOWDOWN. I DO NOT THINK THE WEIGHT OF EVIDENCE PUSHES US IN THE DIRECTION OF A RECESSION AT THIS POINT. AGAIN, IT IS HARD TO KNOW. THE UNDERLINING TRANSIT PRODUCTIVITY ARE RELATIVELY DISCOURAGING AND LOW AND HAVE BEEN SINCE THE GREAT FINANCIAL CRISIS. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF HORSEPOWER ON THE POSITIVE SIDE WITH RESPECT TO LONGER-TERM GROWTH. I THINK A SLOWING DOWN, BUT -- THE PUNDITS SAY IF WE HAVE A RECESSION, IT WILL BE A MILD ONE. THAT SEEMS RIGHT TO ME. KRITI: MEGHAN, PUT SOME NUMBERS ON THIS. WE ARE SEEING A 17 BASIS POINT MOVE ON THE END OF THE CURVE AND FED CUTS DO NOT COME TO FRUITION, HOW MUCH WORSE COULD THIS BOND SELLOFF GET? MEGHAN: YES, SO WE HAVE BEEN LONG-DURATION TO START THE YEAR HERE. THAT TRAIT HAS DONE WELL. I WILL SAY THAT IN TERMS OF OUR RECOMMENDATIONS, WE HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING CLIENTS IMPLEMENT LOANS IN REAL YIELDS AND TIPS WHICH GIVES YOU PROTECTION FROM INFLATION REMAINING HIGHER FOR LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. THAT, TO ME, IS THE CORE RISK OF ANY LONG-DURATION VIEW YOU HAVE ON RIGHT NOW. WE ARE RECOMMENDING INVESTORS MOVE INTO THOSE LONG-DURATION TRADES AS WE ARE NEARING THE END OF THE FED HIKING CYCLE OVERALL. AS THE FED IS SLOWLY REACHING THAT POINT, THAT IS USUALLY THE PART IN THE CYCLE WHERE YOU SEE DURATION RALLY AND WE HAVE SEEN THAT MATERIALIZE OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS. WE THINK THE CORE RISK TO THIS VIEW AND POSITION IS INFLATION REMAINING STRONG. WE LIKE HEDGING THAT IN TERMS OF TIPS AND PAYING FIXED ON LONGER INFLATION SWAPS. JON: HELPFUL CONTEXT THERE. THANKS TO MEGAN AND MICHAEL. AN INTERESTING CONVERSATION. TIME FOR A BREAK. COMING UP, AFTER THE CYBERATTACK ON EYE ON TRADING AND U.K., WE LOOK AT WHY JEROME IS TRADING THIS WEEK LOOK LIKE WE WERE BACK IN THE 1980'S. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. > > THIS IS BLOOMBERG MARKETS. TIME FOR TODAY'S FOR WHAT IT'S WORTH. OUR NUMBER TODAY CLIMBS INTO THE HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS. EACH DAY, THAT IS THE VALUE OF TRADES DERIVATIVE SHOPS ARE USING TO CLEAR USING TECHNOLOGY. THAT CHANGED THIS WEEK AFTER THE CYBERATTACK ON ION TRADING WHICH LEFT TRADING -- TRADERS MANUALLY PROCESSING DEALS IN WAYS WE HAVE NOT SEEN SINCE THE 1980'S. BLOOMBERG HAS BEEN REPORTING EXTENSIVELY ON THIS DEVELOPMENT. KRITI: IT IS INTERESTING TO SEE THE KIND OF TROUBLE THAT IT IS CAUSING. THE CFTC REPORT IS GOING TO BE DELAYED THIS WEEK. USUALLY COMES OUT ABOUT 3:30 P.M. FRIDAYS. THAT IS NOT A BIG DEAL. THE BIG DEAL IS THE MARGINS, THE SETTLEMENTS IS WHERE YOU SEE TRADERS SAYING WAIT, HOW MUCH TROUBLE ARE WE IN? I FIND IT FASCINATING WE ARE TO YOUR POINT BACK IN THE 1980'S. JON: WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THOSE NUMBER FIGURES TO HIGHLIGHT JUST HOW MUCH ACTIVITY IS ON THE LINE . IN A YEAR WHERE THERE IS CONTINUED TO BE UNCERTAINTY, IT DOES FEEL LIKE THE STORY OF CONTINUED CYBER SECURITY THREATS IS A WAS FRONT AND CENTER. KRITI: IT IS AND IT SPEAKS TO THE AMOUNT OF INFRASTRUCTURE WHEN IT COMES TO CLOUD SECURITY AND CYBERSECURITY THAT WE WILL GET FROM MIKE -- FROM ALPHABET. THESE COMPANIES HAVE PARTNERED TO AVOID THESE EXCHANGES. A QUICK CHANGE OF MARKETS, YOU ARE SEEING THE S & P 500 AND THE RED DOWN BY .8%. NASDAQ DOWN BY 1% ON THE DAY. BOND MARKET SELLING OFF 10 YEAR YIELD HIGHER. MORE COVERAGE AHEAD.
  • NOW PLAYING

    Bloomberg Markets: Americas Full Show (02/03/2023)

  • 01:01

    Goldman Sachs Loses Three Senior Tech Bankers

  • 02:06

    Jefferies Profit Falls After Slump in Investment Banking

  • 02:28

    UBS Names Sergio Ermotti as New Group CEO

  • 01:35

    Ermotti Returns as UBS CEO, Replacing Hamers

  • 07:18

    Indrawati: Credibility at Ministry Is Serious Issue

  • 05:49

    THINK Gas On India's Gas Demand Outlook

  • 04:48

    JPMorgan: Rotation Out Of Growth Into Value Stocks

  • 05:31

    Bain & Company's Tsang on China Auto

  • 04:54

    Blue Lotus Capital Advisors on Alibaba

  • 11:59

    AIA Group CIO on Implications of Alibaba's Restructure

  • 01:33

    BYD’s Net Income Jumps 446% in 2022

  • 01:35:19

    'Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia' Full Show (03/29/2023)

  • 46:09

    'Bloomberg Markets: China Open' Full Show (03/29/2023)

  • 04:38

    SGMC Capital CEO on Markets, Strategy

  • 05:45

    UNSW's Humphery-Jenner on US Bank Turmoil

Stream Schedule:

U.S. BTV+
  • U.S. BTV+
  • U.S. BTV
  • Europe BTV
  • Asia BTV
  • Australia BTV
  • U.S. Live Event
  • EMEA Live Event
  • Asia Live Event
  • Politics Live Event
No schedule data available.

Bloomberg Markets: Americas Full Show (02/03/2023)

  • Bloomberg Markets

  • TV Shows

February 3rd, 2023, 10:41 PM GMT+0000

Kriti Gupta and Jon Erlichman discuss the jobs report Guests Today: oe Davis of Vanguard, Nobel Laureate Michael Spence, Meghan Swiber of Bank of America. (Source: Bloomberg)


  • More From Bloomberg Markets

    • 07:18

      Indrawati: Credibility at Ministry Is Serious Issue

      1 hours ago
    • 05:49

      THINK Gas On India's Gas Demand Outlook

      1 hours ago
    • 04:48

      JPMorgan: Rotation Out Of Growth Into Value Stocks

      1 hours ago
    • 05:31

      Bain & Company's Tsang on China Auto

      1 hours ago
    All episodes and clips
  • Bloomberg Technology

    The only daily news program focused exclusively on technology, innovation and the future of business from San Francisco. Hosted by Emily Chang.
    More episodes and clips
    • 17:39

      'Bloomberg Technology' Full Show (03/28/2023)

    • 03:03

      Microsoft Brings AI to Cybersecurity

    • 09:20

      Lyft CEO Wants to Compete With Uber on Fares

    • 01:38

      Lyft Is Not for Sale, New CEO Risher Says

  • The David Rubenstein Show

    "The David Rubenstein Show: Peer-to-Peer Conversations" explores successful leadership through the personal and professional choices of the most influential people in business.
    More episodes and clips
    • 24:06

      The David Rubenstein Show: Penny Pritzker

    • 23:56

      The David Rubenstein Show: Qatar's HBJ

    • 24:05

      The David Rubenstein Show: Jerome Powell

    • 01:22

      Fed Chair Powell on the Fed's New Trading Disclosure Rules

See all shows
Terms of Service Trademarks Privacy Policy ©2023 Bloomberg L.P. All Rights Reserved
Careers Made in NYC Advertise Ad Choices Help