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Tyler Cowen

AI Is Improving Faster Than Most Humans Realize

Technologies such as ChatGPT will profoundly change the economy, but they are getting better so quickly that it’s impossible to say how.

How much better will it get?

How much better will it get?

Photographer: Gabby Jones/Bloomberg

Artificial intelligence advances in a manner that’s hard for the human mind to grasp. For a long time nothing happens, and then all of a sudden something does. The current revolution of Large Language Models (LLMs) such as ChatGPT resulted from the advent of “transformer neural networks” in about 2017.

What will the next half-decade bring? Can we rely on our current impressions of these tools to judge their quality, or will they surprise us with their development? As someone who has spent many hours playing around with these models, I think many people are in for a shock. LLMs will have significant implications for our business decisions, our portfolios, our regulatory structures and the simple question of how much we as individuals should invest in learning how to use them.